December 3, 2013

PISA reading scores by race: America does pretty well

On the international PISA tests in 2012, American 15-year-olds tended to do best on Reading Literacy, medium on Science Literacy, and worst on Mathematics Literacy. I have no idea whether that's for real or just a reflection of the difficulties of translating PISA tests into dozens of languages and making them equally hard in all. Here's our strong suit Reading, with American racial groups broken out according to the federal governments National Center for Education Statistics website for exploring the new PISA data:

OECD average              496
Shanghai-China            570
Asian Americans 550
Hong Kong-China           545
Singapore                 542
Japan                     538
Korea, Republic of        536
Massachusetts All Races 527
Finland                   524
Ireland                   523
Chinese Taipei            523
Canada                    523
Connecticut All Races 521
White Americans 519
Poland                    518
Multiracial Americans 517
Estonia                   516
Liechtenstein             516
New Zealand               512
Australia                 512
Netherlands               511
Belgium                   509
Switzerland               509
Macao-China               509
Vietnam                   508
Germany                   508
France                    505
Norway                    504
United Kingdom            499
United States             498
Denmark                   496
Czech Republic            493
Florida All Races 492
Italy                     490
Austria                   490
Latvia                    489
Hungary                   488
Spain                     488
Luxembourg                488
Portugal                  488
Israel                    486
Croatia                   485
Sweden                    483
Iceland                   483
Slovenia                  481
Hispanic Americans 478
Lithuania                 477
Greece                    477
Turkey                    475
Russian Federation        475
Slovak Republic           463
Cyprus                    449
Serbia, Republic of       446
African Americans 443
United Arab Emirates      442
Chile                     441
Thailand                  441
Costa Rica                441
Romania                   438
Bulgaria                  436
Mexico                    424
Montenegro, Republic of   422
Uruguay                   411
Brazil                    410
Tunisia                   404
Colombia                  403
Jordan                    399
Malaysia                  398
Indonesia                 396
Argentina                 396
Albania                   394
Kazakhstan                393
Qatar                     388
Peru                      384

In reading, Asian Americans beat all Asian countries, and trailed only the prosperous city of Shanghai.

White Americans came in fourth among historically white countries, behind only Finland, Ireland, and Canada. White Americans beat a couple of dozen historically white countries wealthy enough to belong to the OECD. Of course, most of these aren't as white as they used to be anymore.

Hispanic Americans beat all eight Latin American countries.

African Americans didn't have any competition from predominantly black counties in Africa or the West Indies, but it's worth noting that African Americans beat all eight Latin American countries.

Keep in mind that this is just in Reading, which American tends to do better in than Math or Science.

Keep in mind that Americans spend a huge amount of money on education.

For more postings devoted to analyzing PISA scores, click the Labels: PISA below. 

PISA Racial results for Americans on Math

With PISA results being released today, you are going to hear a lot about how stupid American 15-year-olds are, but smart analysts remember to always adjust for race.

From the federal National Center for Education Statistics, a breakdown of 2012 PISA math scores showing how Americans of different races compare to the world. PISA scores are much like SAT scores, with an intended mean of 500 for the OECD (i.e., rich) countries and a standard deviation of 100. On PISA, Math is America's worst subject (Reading is its best).

OECD average              494
Shanghai-China            613
Singapore                 573
Hong Kong-China           561
Chinese Taipei            560
Korea, Republic of        554
Asian-Americans 549
Macao-China               538
Japan                     536
Liechtenstein             535
Switzerland               531
Netherlands               523
Estonia                   521
Finland                   519
Canada                    518
Poland                    518
Belgium                   515
Massachusetts-All Races 514
Germany                   514
Vietnam                   511
White Americans 506
Connecticut-All Races 506
Austria                   506
Australia                 504
Ireland                   501
Slovenia                  501
Denmark                   500
New Zealand               500
Czech Republic            499
France                    495
OECD Average 494
United Kingdom            494
Iceland                   493
Multiracial Americans 492
Latvia                    491
Luxembourg                490
Norway                    489
Portugal                  487
Italy                     485
Spain                     484
Russian Federation        482
Slovak Republic           482
United States             481
Lithuania                 479
Sweden                    478
Hungary                   477
Croatia                   471
Florida-All Races 467
Israel                    466
Hispanic Americans 455
Greece                    453
Serbia, Republic of       449
Turkey                    448
Romania                   445
Cyprus                    440
Bulgaria                  439
United Arab Emirates      434
Kazakhstan                432
Thailand                  427
Chile                     423
African Americans 421
Malaysia                  421
Mexico                    413
Montenegro, Republic of   410
Uruguay                   409
Costa Rica                407
Albania                   394
Brazil                    391
Argentina                 388
Tunisia                   388
Jordan                    386
Colombia                  376
Qatar                     376
Indonesia                 375
Peru                      368

From the federal NCES, a breakdown of 2012 PISA math scores for American students by race:

Below
level 1
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
Level 5
Level 6
< 358
< 421
< 483
< 555
< 607
< 670
>= 670
Race/ethnicity
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
OECD average
8.0
15.0
22.5
23.7
18.2
9.3
3.3
U.S. average
8.0
17.9
26.3
23.3
15.8
6.6
2.2
White
3.6
11.5
25.0
27.8
20.3
8.8
3.0
Black
21.0
32.0
25.3
14.0
6.7
1.0
Hispanic
10.8
24.2
30.2
20.3
10.2
3.5
0.7
Asian
5.4
15.6
23.6
28.1
16.1
9.0
Multiracial
17.1
29.6
23.3
16.4
7.7
Cumulative: Bottom Up
OECD average
8.0
23.0
45.5
69.2
87.4
96.7
100.0
U.S. average
8.0
25.8
52.1
75.4
91.2
97.8
100.0
White
3.6
15.1
40.1
67.9
88.2
97.0
100.0
Black
21.0
53.0
78.3
92.3
99.0
100.0
100.0
Hispanic
10.8
35.0
65.2
85.5
95.7
99.2
99.9
Asian
2.2
7.6
23.2
46.8
74.9
91.0
100.0
Multiracial
3.0
23.0
52.6
75.9
92.3
97.1
100.0
Cumulative: Top Down
OECD average
100.0
92.0
77.0
54.5
30.8
12.6
3.3
U.S. average
100.0
92.0
74.2
47.9
24.6
8.8
2.2
White
100.0
96.4
84.9
59.9
32.1
11.8
3.0
Black
100.0
79.0
47.0
21.7
7.7
1.0
0.0
Hispanic
99.9
89.1
64.9
34.7
14.4
4.2
0.7
Asian
100.0
97.8
92.4
76.8
53.2
25.1
9.0
Multiracial
100.0
94.1
77.0
47.4
24.1
7.7
0.0

Tech note: I imputed Asian and Multiracial percentages below Level I and Multiracial percentage in Level 6, which were left out of report due to small samples sizes. 

For more postings devoted to analyzing PISA scores, click the Labels: PISA below. 

Pisa Day: Test fever causes low Asian fertility

In the Telegraph:
OECD educational report: Pisa fever is causing east Asia's demographic collapse 
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Politics and society Last updated: December 3rd, 2013 
Britain's poor scores in the Pisa education league are of course shameful. We should be doing as well as the Netherlands, our close cultural kin. 
But before we all flagellate ourselves – let alone think of copying the Shanghai success formula – just remember one thing. There is a body of scholarship showing that the collapse of the fertility rate to dangerously low levels across east Asia is the direct consequence of school cramming and "education fever".
This is well-known to demographers and those who follow the Far East closely, but less known in the West. This paper for example on Korea: 
In this paper we argue that East Asia’s ultra-low fertility rates can be partially explained by the steadfast parental drive to have competitive and successful children… 
Obsession with education in Korea has become an integral part of contemporary Korean culture and affects all aspects of social life. Deeply rooted Confucian values stress education as the best way for achieving high social status and economic prosperity. A collapse of the hierarchical social class system coupled with egalitarian ideas from the West have created the notion that any Korean child can achieve personal advancement, economic prosperity, and social mobility through education. Korean parents widely recognise this and see it as their duty to provide their children with the proper educational resources and support in order to produce successful and competitive children. In the mid-1970s as part of their family planning project, even the Korean government adopted the notion of “quality over quantity” with colourful and creative “population propaganda” exclaiming: “Daughter or son, let's not think about which. Just have two and raise them well”. 
The CIA World FactBook says fertility rates have fallen to: Hong Kong (1.04), Singapore (1.10), Taiwan (1.15), Japan (1.20), Korea (1.22). These figures may be a little too low. Japan and Singapore have seen a small bounce lately.

... Since Asia's demographic crisis is a much bigger threat to economic development and social stability than a few points here or there on the Pisa rankings, you really have to wonder whether we should be worshipping at this altar. I strongly suspect that the whole Pisa initiative will be discredited over the next decade, and may perhaps be viewed as extremely foolish.

Now, if we could just induce a Quality Over Quantity mindset in Mali ...

For more postings devoted to analyzing PISA scores, click the Labels: PISA below. 

PISA day

Scores have been released for the 2012 PISA tests of most of the rich OECD countries and some poorer countries. North East Asians on top as usual, then Europeans, then various kinds of Third Worlders. The 2012 test emphasizes Math, while 2009 emphasizes Reading in which the U.S. scores well, so the U.S. is trailing most Western Europeans and appears to have regressed back toward its long term mean after a high-scoring 2009. Finland fell back to Earth after a long spell on top of Europe.

One interesting is on p. 10-11 which gives math scores for some subregions of various countries, such as Massachusetts, Connecticut and Florida in the U.S. (No surprises there in terms of rank order of those three states.) Also broken out are Australia, Italy, Spain (isn't Extremadura the coolest name?), Mexico, and Brazil. 

The Italian results are pretty funny. The top four are Trento, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Veneto, and Lombardia. The bottom scorers are names familiar from gangster movies: Campania (Naples), Sicilia, and Calabria (the toe of the boot).

The highest scoring Mexican state is Aguascaliente in north-central Mexico. From Wikipedia:
More than two thirds of the local population of Aguascalientes is 78% European descent, mostly Spanish and French with settlement of French troops in the Valley of Huajucar during the Second Mexican Empire. Many Hidrocalidos trace their lineage back to Germany and the Netherlands, due to the settlement of various Mennonite communities, but also Italian, Russian, Polish, Swedish, German, Greek, and Romanian due to the high number of refugees who came to the state during World War II, 19% mestizo (mixed Amerindian-European), 2% Asian (mostly Japanese and Korean due to the rapid growth in Nissan production with the opening of a new factory in the state. .[10]

Second place in Mexico was Nuevo Leon (Monterrey). From Wikipedia:
Regarding ethnicity, the state has one of the highest white populations, a trend very apparent in Mexico's northern region. The majority of the people within the state are of Spanish, French, or German descent. Mestizos are also dominant in the state.

Third was Jalisco (Guadalajara).

Lowest scoring Mexican state is Guerrero on the Pacific (Acapulco), which has a high-proportion of non-Spanish speaking Indios.

For more postings devoted to analyzing PISA scores, click the Labels: PISA below. 

December 2, 2013

My opinion on death of Paul Walker (and Alabama-Auburn)

A reader wants to know my opinion of the death of Fast and Furious star Paul Walker in the passenger seat of a 610 hp Porsche. The actor's financial adviser hit a light pole on which was mounted a "45 mph" sign.

Hey, I've been trying for two days to come up with something, but it all seemed kind of morbid.

What do you want me to say? It's awesome how Paul Walker died just like a character in Fast and Furious would have? It's like how director Tony "Top Gun" Scott killed himself in a spectacular suicide jumping off a giant suspension bridge? 

My real problem is not bad taste, which is not something I worry much about, but because I can't think of a third movie personality besides Paul Walker and Tony Scott to die in character, and you need three of something to be a Thing. (Coming up with examples is something I do worry about.)

Maybe Bing Crosby signing his golf scorecard (a fine 78, almost shooting his age) and then dropping dead right off the 18th green, no fuss or muss, but that wasn't as cinematic. Lots of actors die in character if their characters are fat (James Gandolfini, John Candy) or fat and out of control (Chris Farley), but that's kind of depressing.

James Dean died in his Porsche while driving to race it at Laguna Seca. But he hadn't made a racing picture yet. Steve McQueen and Paul Newman made racing pictures, but didn't die in car crashes in real life. (McQueen probably wouldn't have minded going out at age 40 in a fast car.)

Brandon Lee died on set sort of like his father Bruce.

Tupac Shakur.

Kurt Cobain's three hits on "Nevermind" all mention guns.

Leslie Howard died when the Nazis shot down his airplane in 1943, perhaps because they thought it was Churchill's plane. That's cool, but it doesn't have anything to do with Ashley Wilkes. But it's kind of Scarlet Pimpernelish, so there's that.

Looking it up, it appears there are numerous theories that Howard's 1943 trip to Portugal and Spain may have had something to do with Foreign Secretary Anthony Eden using Howard to get a message through to Gen. Franco. (This doesn't strike me as implausible -- the British mobilized more of their cultural talent than Americans did, and the idea of using a charismatic movie star in a diplomatic role isn't implausible. During WWII, top British generals had David Niven, a Sandhurst ex-officer turned Hollywood movie star turned officer, sit in on their meetings with American brass to defuse tensions and to exploit Niven's knowledge of how to charm Americans.)

It's also widely speculated that the Brits decoded the German orders to intercept the commercial airline flight from Lisbon to London, but did nothing in order to preserve the secrecy of Enigma.

So, Scarlet Pimpernel indeed. The Scarlet Pimpernel was Howard's 1934 vehicle about an 18th Century effete English aristocrat who is really a secret agent who sneaks into Revolutionary France and smuggles prisoners out ahead of Robespierre's guillotine. But, who really knows?

So, even though we can't know for sure, we'll say Leslie Howard is a go for third on this list of movie people who died spectacularly in character.

What would be appropriate deaths for other Hollywood figures? A ferocious parasite could pop out of Ridley Scott's abdomen? James Cameron could die when a giant truck smashes into an ocean liner in an open hearth steel mill in outer space? Daniel Day-Lewis could be beaten to death with a bowling pin for no particular reason?

Also, in case anybody's wondering about my opinion on the Alabama-Auburn game, I didn't see it, but it sounds like the best 4th quarter ever: not just the final three possessions in the last minute, but the preceding 99-yard-pass that looked for 15 minutes like it would win A.J. McCarron the Heisman, the two 4th and 1 stops, and the blocked field goal. That's a lot of plot twists for one quarter.

New PISA scores

Lately, Europeans have really been getting into the international PISA tests of academic performance among 15-year-olds. This test is given in over 60 countries every three years. The 2012 results will be released on Tuesday (10 am Greenwich Mean Time) here.

So, there's going to be a lot of hoopla, but let me link here to some resources for understanding the results, whatever they may turn out to be.

I've got a book review in the pipeline at Taki's Magazine that looks at Amanda Ripley's PISA book, The Smartest Kids in the World, in which she writes up the experiences of three American exchange students who went to PISA powerhouses South Korea and Finland and rising star Poland. I consider whether everybody should put as much faith in PISA scores as Ripley does.

Here's my 2010 article in VDARE.com on interpreting the 2009 PISA test.

Heiner Rindermann has been writing numerous academic articles on what we can learn from PISA as well as competing international tests such as TIMSS and PIRLS, as well as the national standardization of IQ tests. Here is his 2007 paper:
The g-factor of international cognitive ability comparisons: the homogeneity of results in PISA, TIMSS, PIRLS and IQ-tests across nations 
International cognitive ability and achievement comparisons stem from different research traditions. But analyses at the interindividual data level show that they share a common positive manifold. Correlations of national ability means are even higher to very high (within student assessment studies, r = .60–.98; between different student assessment studies [PISA-sum with TIMSS-sum] r = .82–.83; student assessment sum with intelligence tests, r = .85–.86). Results of factor analyses indicate a strong g-factor of differences between nations (variance explained by the first unrotated factor: 94–95%). Causes of the high correlations are seen in the similarities of tests within studies, in the similarities of the cognitive demands for tasks from different tests, and in the common developmental factors at the individual and national levels including known environmental and unknown genetic influences.  

And here is the discussion of his article by numerous academics.

Here is Rindermann's 2009 paper with James Thompson:
Cognitive Capitalism: The Effect of Cognitive Ability on Wealth, as Mediated Through Scientific Achievement and Economic Freedom
Traditional economic theories stress the relevance of political, institutional, geographic, and historical factors for economic growth. In contrast, human-capital theories suggest that peoples’ competences, mediated by technological progress, are the deciding factor in a nation’s wealth. Using three large-scale assessments, we calculated cognitive-competence sums for the mean and for upper- and lower-level groups for 90 countries and compared the influence of each group’s intellectual ability on gross domestic product. In our cross-national analyses, we applied different statistical methods (path analyses, bootstrapping) and measures developed by different research groups to various country samples and historical periods. Our results underscore the decisive relevance of cognitive ability—particularly of an intellectual class with high cognitive ability and accomplishments in science, technology, engineering, and math—for national wealth. Furthermore, this group’s cognitive ability predicts the quality of economic and political institutions, which further determines the economic affluence of the nation. Cognitive resources enable the evolution of capitalism and the rise of wealth. 

The hunger for hate: "Best defense is a strong offense"

A = Pine Bush, NY
Back on November 7, 2013, the New York Times trumpeted:
Swastikas, Slurs and Torment in Town’s Schools 
Pine Bush, N.Y., School District Faces Accusations of Anti-Semitism

TAKING ACTION Above, parents who have sued the Pine Bush Central School District over what they say is pervasive anti-Semitism and indifference by school officials. 
By BENJAMIN WEISER 
Published: November 7, 2013  737 Comments 
The swastikas, the students recalled, seemed to be everywhere: on walls, desks, lockers, textbooks, computer screens, a playground slide — even on a student’s face. 
Related
Cuomo Orders Inquiries on Claims of Anti-Semitic Acts at Pine Bush Schools (November 9, 2013)
A picture of President Obama, with a swastika drawn on his forehead, remained on the wall of an eighth-grade social studies classroom for about a month after a student informed her teacher, the student said. 
For some Jewish students in the Pine Bush Central School District in New York State, attending public school has been nothing short of a nightmare. They tell of hearing anti-Semitic epithets and nicknames, and horrific jokes about the Holocaust. 
They have reported being pelted with coins, told to retrieve money thrown into garbage receptacles, shoved and even beaten. They say that on school buses in this rural part of the state, located about 90 minutes north of New York City and once home to a local Ku Klux Klan chapter president, students have chanted “white power” and made Nazi salutes with their arms. 
The proliferation and cumulative effect of the slurs, drawings and bullying led three Jewish families last year to sue the district and its administrators in federal court; they seek damages and an end to what they call pervasive anti-Semitism and indifference by school officials. 
The district — centered in Pine Bush, west of Newburgh, and serving 5,600 children from Orange, Sullivan and Ulster Counties — is vigorously contesting the suit. But a review of sworn depositions of current and former school officials shows that some have acknowledged there had been a problem, although they denied it was widespread and said they had responded appropriately with discipline and other measures. 
“There are anti-Semitic incidents that have occurred that we need to address,” John Boyle, Crispell Middle School’s principal, said in a deposition in April. 
In 2011, when one parent complained about continued harassment of her daughter and another Jewish girl, Pine Bush’s superintendent from 2008 to 2013, Philip G. Steinberg, wrote in an email, “I have said I will meet with your daughters and I will, but your expectations for changing inbred prejudice may be a bit unrealistic.” 
Mr. Steinberg, who, along with two other administrators named as defendants, is Jewish, described the lawsuit in recent interviews as a “money grab.” He contended that the plaintiffs had “embellished” some allegations. 
Nonetheless, reports of anti-Semitism have persisted, with at least two recent complaints made to the Jewish Federation of Greater Orange County. 
The New York Times has reviewed about 3,500 pages of deposition testimony by parents, children and school administrators, which were provided by the families’ lawyers on the condition that the identities of the children, some of whom are still enrolled, be protected. Limited redactions were also made to protect student privacy.

This became a national story. A few days later, limelight-loving federal prosecutor Preet Bahrara announced a federal investigation of anti-Semitism in Pine Bush.

The most prominent skeptics, however, have been the Jewish press and Jewish residents of Pine Bush, such as local dentist Stuart Feuer, who wrote the New York Times:
My family has never experienced any anti-Semitism in our 25 years in the community, nor do we know of any other Jewish families who have experienced this. We are at home in this town.

In the Jewish Daily Forward, Opinion editor Gal Beckerman wrote:
It’s a tired complaint to say a news article lacks context, but that’s what I want to say here. And without a bigger back story or some deeper investigation as to the source of this bubbling hate, all we have is an article that does one of two things: It either feeds an unwarranted hysteria about creeping anti-Semitism or just provides a titillating read about the strange doings upstate for the Upper West Siders who make up the Times core audience. What it does not do, and doesn’t seem concerned with doing, is get us any closer to understanding why those kids have found themselves in such a terrifying environment.

In the JDF comments, Meghan Aileen responded:
You are quite right that there is more to this situation than meets the eye. I was shocked to read the article in the NYT. I have never heard of any allegations of anti-Semitism within this school district. As a community we will try to get to the bottom of these allegations, as they are truly disturbing. However, there is another story that will require investigating as well. A small village (300 residents) within our school district, Bloomingburg, is the site of a new Satmar Hasidic development currently under construction. The town annexed 200 acres of town land to a developer whose plan was proposed as 125 luxury homes with a golf course. It is now 396 town homes and a girls school that is only being advertised in Jewish newspapers in Brooklyn and nearby Kiryas Joel. Our local papers are now beginning to get to the bottom of the corruption that was behind this bait and switch, and the small town officials that made backroom deals. The school has reached out to both the developer and the Bloomingburg officials to inquire as to the details of the private school, as they are by law required to provide services and busing to these students. That letter was written in September and is why I question the timing of Mr. Weiser's article. Mr. Wieser is well aware of the Bloomingburg debacle. It just didn't fit into his story.

Now, Jewish Week has looked into the story more:
Bias Charge Dumbfounds Residents Of Pine Bush 
Anti-Semitism described in suit is unfair portrayal of their town, they say. 
11/27/13 
Stewart Ain
Staff Writer

Pine Bush, N.Y. — Suddenly, they don’t even recognize their own town anymore. 
The six women eating in a diner near the Crispell Middle School in this hamlet about 75 miles north of New York City said they were incredulous when they read that a civil rights lawsuit had been filed against the Pine Bush School District claiming that it is rife with anti-Semitism that has gone largely unchecked. 
The women, who like most of the 15 residents interviewed at a diner and supermarket this week declined to give their names, said the community described in the lawsuit bore little resemblance to the one they’ve lived in for years. In fact, one said she retired as a Pine Bush Elementary School teacher five years ago and was dumbfounded by the complaint — especially the allegation that all five of the children whose parents brought the suit said they experienced anti-Semitism in the Crispell Middle School. 
“Crispell was the place where we all wanted our kids to go,” she said. “It has a safe, nurturing, comfortable environment. The teachers there I know are caring, loving people — the kids always came first.” 
Many of those interviewed questioned the timing of the front-page article about the suit in The New York Times earlier this month. Some suggested that community opposition to a 396-unit townhouse being built in the school district and reportedly marketed exclusively to Satmar Jews somehow triggered the Times’ story. 

From Wikipedia:
Satmar (Hasidic dynasty) 
Satmar (Hebrew: סאטמאר or סאטמר) is a Hasidic sect originating from the city of Satu Mare ('Satmar' in Yiddish), Transylvania, where it was founded in 1905 by Rabbi Joel Teitelbaum. Following World War II it was reestablished in New York, becoming one of the largest Hasidic movements in the world. After Joel's death, he was succeeded by his nephew, Moshe Teitelbaum. Since the latter's death in 2006, the dynasty is split between his two sons, Aaron Teitelbaum and Zalman Teitelbaum. ... As of 2006, the dynasty controlled assets worth $1 billion in the United States. ... The two largest Satmar communities are in Williamsburg, Brooklyn and Kiryas Joel, New York.

From Wikipedia on Kiryas Joel, NY:
According to 2008 census figures, the village has the highest poverty rate in the nation, and the largest percentage of residents who receive food stamps. More than five-eighths of Kiryas Joel residents live below the federal poverty line and more than 40 percent receive food stamps, according to the American Community Survey, a U.S. Census Bureau study of every place in the country with 20,000 residents or more.[3] A 2011 New York Times report noted that, despite the town's very high statistical poverty rates, "It has no slums or homeless people. No one who lives there is shabbily dressed or has to go hungry. Crime is virtually nonexistent."[21] 

More from Jewish Week:
As they explained it, the developers decided to fight growing opposition to the development by claiming residents don’t want Jews moving in. To prove their point, they leaked the suit to the Times as evidence of anti-Semitism in the community. 
But Holly Roche, leader of the Rural Community Coalition, which is spearheading community opposition to the project because of its size in a village of 375 residents, said that theory no longer worked after she disclosed she is Jewish. 
“Now they are calling me anti-Satmar,” she said. ...
“The best defense is a strong offense,” explained a Jewish resident about the developers’ approach, who asked that his name not be used for fear it might complicate his business dealings in the area.

"The best defense is a strong offense" -- Those are wise words in 21st Century America.
There have been several articles, including a 16-page supplement, published in Jewish and Yiddish newspapers promoting the development to the Satmar chasidic community. A girls’ yeshiva is also under discussion, and residents said they have heard talk of a boys’ yeshiva being built as well.

So this appears to be largely a power, money, real estate, tax, and welfare struggle between ultra-orthodox Jews and a local community led in large part by normal American Jews with jobs like school superintendent, dentist, and part-time preservation activist. (Similar struggles can be seen in, say, Sherman Oaks, CA between the fast-growing ultra-orthodox and the long-time resident regular Jews.)

You might think that the New York Times would instinctively identify with the educated liberal Jews against the smears of the reactionary Jews.

But that underestimates the media's insatiable longing for allegations of anti-Semitism, no matter how wacky. The hunger for hate is strong these days.

FDA v. 23andMe

The Food & Drug Administration is cracking down on the genetics testing company 23andMe. Alex Tabarrok offers the libertarian perspective.

Allow me to offer a historical perspective: Back in 2000 President Clinton, along with scientists Francis Collins and Craig Venter, wildly oversold the near-term medical benefits of the Human Genome Project, while simultaneously implying that Race Does Not Exist because Science. Bill Clinton orated on June 26, 2000:
We are here to celebrate the completion of the first survey of the entire human genome. . ... With this profound new knowledge, humankind is on the verge of gaining immense, new power to heal. Genome science will have a real impact on all our lives -- and even more, on the lives of our children. It will revolutionize the diagnosis, prevention and treatment of most, if not all, human diseases. 
In coming years, doctors increasingly will be able to cure diseases like Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, diabetes and cancer by attacking their genetic roots. ... 
After all, I believe one of the great truths to emerge from this triumphant expedition inside the human genome is that in genetic terms, all human beings, regardless of race, are more than 99.9 percent the same. ...  
Francis Collins: I'm happy that today, the only race we are talking about is the human race. (Applause) ... 
Craig Venter: The method used by Celera has determined the genetic code of five individuals. We have sequenced the genome of three females and two males, who have identified themselves has Hispanic, Asian, Caucasian or African American. We did this sampling not in an exclusionary way, but out of respect for the diversity that is America, and to help illustrate that the concept of race has no genetic or scientific basis. 
In the five Celera genomes, there is no way to tell one ethnicity from another. 

You could excuse Clinton's and Collins' weasely words on race as not quite saying what everybody thought they were saying, but Venter went there directly and said something he must have known at the time was not just midleading, but false.

This single press conference set back public understanding of the human sciences considerably.

The irony is that, so far, much of the utility of genome analysis has been in racial genealogy — e.g., “Oh, well, I guess I’m not part Cherokee like family lore claims.”

By the way, 23andMe is cofounded by the wife of Google Guy Sergey Brin, who is generally not somebody you want to irritate, even if your parent organization has ICBMs like the FDA's does. I wonder if the FDA's decision to finally take public action against 23andMe now had anything to with the recent news that Mrs. Brin will soon not be Mrs. Brin anymore?

The nightmare of a lack of diversity

From Slate:
Icelandic Police May Have Shot and Killed Someone for the First Time Ever Today

NYT: Crime in Dakota oil patch: It's a trend!

Another headline from the New York Times in its continuing series: "Blue Collar Prosperity in North Dakota -- Yecch!"
As Oil Floods Plains Towns, Crime Pours In
One cold morning last year, a math teacher jogging through her hometown in eastern Montana was abducted, strangled and buried in a shallow grave. Charged in her death were two drifters from Colorado, drawn to the region by the allure of easy money in the oil fields.
One hundred fifty miles away, in a bustling oil town in North Dakota, a 30-year-old man disappeared one afternoon from the street where he had been putting in water and sewer pipes, leaving behind a lunchbox with his paycheck inside and a family grasping for answers. After months of searching, his mother said she now believes her son is gone, buried somewhere on the high plain.

Two crimes, 150 miles apart: It's a trend, and therefore, unlike Knockout Game, it's news.
Stories like these, once rare, have become as common as drilling rigs in rural towns at the heart of one of the nation’s richest oil booms. Crime has soared as thousands of workers and rivers of cash have flowed into towns, straining police departments and shattering residents’ sense of safety. 
“It just feels like the modern-day Wild West,” said Sgt. Kylan Klauzer, an investigator in Dickinson, in western North Dakota. The Dickinson police handled 41 violent crimes last year, up from seven only five years ago. 
To the police and residents, the violence shows how a modern-day gold rush is transforming the rolling plains and farm towns where people once fretted about a population drain. Today, four-story chain hotels are rising, and small apartments rent for $2,000 a month. Two-lane roads are jammed with tractor-trailers. Fast-food restaurants offer $300 signing bonuses for new employees, and jobs as gas station attendants can pay $50,000 a year. Workers flush with cash are snapping up A.T.V.s, and hotel menus offer crab and artichoke dip and bacon-wrapped dates. 

A pattern I've noticed is the New York Times' fear and loathing of prosperity in North Dakota. It's weird. The normal human reaction to a cold, emptying-out place finally getting a lucky break would be, "Oh, that's nice." But to the NYT, North Dakota is an endless horrorshow of cashiers making $24 per hour and other atrocities.
Last year, a study by officials in Montana and North Dakota found that crime had risen by 32 percent since 2005 in communities at the center of the boom. 

According to the report by North Dakota and Montana law enforcement agencies wanting, not unreasonably, their cut of the new tax dollars, the population in the Williston area is up 17 percent. So, per capita, the crime rate is up 13% over seven years, or, in effect, a couple of percent per year. A per capita increase in crime of two percent per year doesn't sound like all that much, but it's a Trend! So, therefore it's National News.

A very large fraction of the newcomers are younger men, so the crime rate may even have fallen per capita among, say, males 18-45. 

Still, you don't want to statistically adjust away everything: obviously, it's a rowdier place than a decade ago when so many young people were leaving North Dakota.

Relative to inner city America, how crime-ridden is the Oil Patch? Well, toward the end of the long article:
While the raw numbers of murders and rapes remain low, every few months seem to bring an act of violence that flares like a gas flame on the dark prairie, shaking a community and underscoring how much life here is changing.

I think that answers your question.

Meritocracy News, Labour Party Dept.

In British news, the Tory mayor of London Boris Johnson is being denounced for mentioning IQ in a speech. As we all know, Tories are Bertie Woosters, while Labour casts its nets far and wide to find its leadership in the coal mines and other proletarian places. For example, the current Labour leader is Ed Miliband, whose father was a famous Marxist college professor. In contrast to the inbred Tories who all come from the same social background, Ed's chief rival for party leadership was David Miliband, whose father was also a famous Marxist college professor. In fact, he was the same famous Marxist college professor.

This pattern is not all that uncommon in the Labour Party leadership. Left of center politicians have been eugenically bred in England since the time of Darwin and Galton. For example, shadow cabinet minister Hilary Benn is a fourth-generation MP. His father, the Grand Old Man of the Labour Party Tony Benn, used to be Anthony Wedgwood Benn, 2nd Viscount Stansgate. In other words, the Benns are part of the same china-making Wedgwood family as Charles Darwin's mother and wife.

December 1, 2013

Everybody Hates Malcolm, cont.

Chuck Ross writes in the Daily Caller:
President Barack Obama said he bought “books for every age group, from five to 52″ — including one on how race affects athleticism — in a trip Saturday afternoon to Politics & Prose, an independent bookstore in Washington, D.C. 
The semi-controversial book “The Sports Gene: Inside the Science of Extraordinary Athletic Performance,” by David Epstein may have been Obama’s most interesting purchase – Epstein himself has acknowledged that the book tackles taboo topics such as race and the unsettled nature-nurture debate. .... 
Beside many other topics, Epstein explains in his book why track and field sprinters of West African descent tend to excel in the sport compared to other racial cohorts. Inborn differences in hemoglobin levels and limb length are part of the explanation for their dominance in the sport, he says. That topic is still taboo in most academic circles, says Epstein, for fears that it may lead to discussions on innate intelligence differences. 
“I’m pleased and certainly surprised he picked up my book, but not at all surprised he’s interested in the topics,” said Epstein, who was reached by The Daily Caller News Foundation via email. 
“I don’t think the president does nor should shy away from topics like gender and race — and certainly not from the science of genetics — that are important to Americans and humans generally,” said Epstein, adding that he wants to use the stage of sports to explore the deepest questions about “human biological diversity.” 
“I hope he enjoys using sports to delve into evolution, genetics, and questions about nature and nurture as much as I did,” Epstein told The Daily Caller News Foundation.

I've been trying to get up the energy to thoroughly read Gladwell's latest book, which looks from a skimming like a considerable improvement over his celebrated earlier efforts. Perhaps I could write a contrarian rave, but so far I just don't have it in me to dive in.

In The New Republic, John Gray hates Malcolm. (Of course, John Gray hates everybody.) But he makes some good points:
Yet Gladwell has more in common with his academic critics than either he or they realize, or care to admit. Academic writing is rarely a pursuit of unpopular truths; much of the time it is an attempt to bolster prevailing orthodoxies and shore up widely felt but ill-founded hopes. ... What is striking about Gladwell’s work is not its distance from academic theorizing but the uncritical reverence that he displays toward the academic mind. 

Gladwell is not unaware that he's highly trusting toward academics: he's stated that directly.

My guess is that people who have bought more than one Malcolm Gladwell book tend to be well-socialized college graduates who find that Malcolm reminds them of that really fun professor they had.

Personally, I'm all in favor of what Gladwell does as a genre, I just want him to do it better.