June 16, 2005

"Nobody knows anything"

Slate summarizes a 55 page meta-analysis by three B-School profs on the economics of the movie industry, but misses the key questions of "How can you tell whether a movie is going to be good or not? And how can you tell whether it's going to be a hit or not?" Consider Ron Howard's last three movies:

A Beautiful Mind -- Good / Hit

The Missing -- Not good / Not a Hit

Cinderella Man -- Good / Not a Hit

I'm obviously over-summarizing here (I didn't much like "A Beautiful Mind," but it's reasonable to say it was well-made; "The Missing" isn't bad, but it seemed to be missing something.)

Back in the early 1980s, screenwriter William Goldman pointed out that "Nobody knows anything" about whether a movie will work or not. Obviously, that's an exaggeration. Everybody knows that a movie made by high-priced talent is likely to be better and do better than one made by nobodies who are financed by their rich grandparents. But we already knew that, so how do we get beyond that to determine whether the latest Ron Howard - Russell Crowe - Akiva Goldsman movie will be or do better or worse than the last one?

I put a fair amount of thought into this because I'm constantly trying to pick out ahead of time which movies will catch the educated reader's interest and make him or her want to read my review. That way, I don't have to go see every single movie that's released. But, it remains almost a complete crap shoot.

Most things that are interesting to us are difficult to predict: the nightly news has a weather forecast, not a forecast on whether the sun will come up in the east or west tomorrow.

I suspect that the quality of movies is particularly difficult to forecast because each one is a one time only operation where the interaction effects are at least as important as the individual contributions.

Furthermore, the popularity of sub-genres goes in and out of fashion in mysterious ways. For example, "Seabiscuit" made a sizable amount of money in the "inspirational Depression true sports movie" subgenre. So, when "Cinderella Man" came along two years later, with at least equal critical and audience responses, it had to do at least as well, right? But apparently the audience decided it was sick of that subgenre...

In sum, nobody knows anything.

P.S., the bigger economic mystery is why so many people buy DVDs rather than rent them for a quarter of the cost. Hollywood takes in a lot more these days from DVD sales than from tickets. Do people really re-watch movies over and over enough to make paying about four times the rental cost worthwhile? Sure, it's economical to buy "Peter Pan" for your three-year-old, but are grown-ups really going to want to watch "Anger Management" five times, the minimum number needed to make purchase more economical than rental? Or do people just like to buy and own stuff? Do they buy "Anger Management" instead of rent it because they want to give more money to Adam Sandler. That's sounds weird, but I think there's some truth to the idea that people get pleasure out of wasting resources to worship their gods, kind of like burning a goat to honor Jehovah.


My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer

Richard Cohen on Ashkenazi Intelligence:

In "Aptitude Adjustment" in the Washington Post, Cohen writes:

It said that scientists at the University of Utah had linked certain genetic diseases found only among European Jews with "natural selection for enhanced intellectual ability." In other words, Jews are smarter because over about a thousand years they adapted to discriminatory practices that limited their livelihood to a restricted range of commercial occupations. Those who succeeded tended to have more children and so, over time, European Jews in general improved their intelligence.

Some scientists find the theory credible; some do not. As for myself, I am immeasurably comforted by it. Jews are smart. This does not mean that all Jews are smart and that no Jews are dumb. It only means that, in general, the proposition holds. Among other things, American Jews -- about 2 percent of the population -- make up 27 percent of this country's Nobel laureates. Something's going on here.

I cannot be certain that Lawrence Summers, the president of Harvard, has read the article. But if he did, I bet he wondered why it is possible to suggest that certain Jews are smarter than other people but not remotely possible to suggest that women might not be as brilliant in science and engineering as men... But if Jews could adapt to their environment in a certain way, why couldn't women or men?...

The reason the Utah study of Jews produced no outcry is that it suggested Jews were, like the children of Lake Wobegon, above average. The reason Summers got into trouble is that he wondered if, so to speak, women were below average. But if one is possible, why not the other? The answer escapes me -- and it cannot be, as we all know from the Utah study, because I'm dumb.



Indeed.

But one other reason for the lack of organized outrage is that Gregory Cochran has no money, while Larry Summers presides over a $20 billion endowment, out of which he has already promised to pay $50 million, with assurances of more to come.


My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer

They Saved Einstein's Brain!

Interesting article from the LA Times on McMaster U. psychologist Sandra Witelson, who has been dissecting hundreds of brains (after their owners no longer need them, I'm glad to report). She finds strong sex differences. Does that mean Larry Summers can take back the $50 million in other people's money he's promised to make up for his gaffe?

By the way, Dr. Witelson has chopped up Einstein's brain and finds it to have been, no fooling, a "one in a billion brain."

Back when I was a kid, while Einstein's brain was still floating in a jar undissected, and you could only look at the outside of it, my fourth grade teacher explained that Einstein's brain was extra-wrinkled, which shows that every time you learn something new, you get a new wrinkle in your brain. But the new article is unaccountably silent on the Wrinkled Brain Theory.


My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer

June 15, 2005

Pod the Lesser out to anathematize the Derb again

TO SUM UP, THEN... [John Podhoretz]

...Mr. Derbyshire a) blames the administration for not being serious about nuclear proliferation, b) expects a pullout from Iraq and a civil war, c) is happy Michael Jackson has been acquitted and d) supports euthenasia.

What magazine's website is this again?

Posted at 04:26 PM

An increasingly boring one, ever since Pod Jr., that human exemplar of regression to the mean, showed up to impose the Party Line.

John Derbyshire's civil but devastating reply is here.


My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer

"Batman Begins"

A quite respectable summer blockbuster, although perhaps a little lacking in inspiration when compared to Tim Burton's original in 1989.

Batman features the usual color-coding by the male actors' hair color. Christian Bale as the Dark Knight has dark hair. You can tell that Rutger Hauer as the chairman of Wayne Industries is going to turn out to be bad because he's blonde. Liam Neeson as Bruce Wayne's mentor in the ninja arts is in-between in hair color, so you can't tell for sure if he'll be good or bad.|

Morgan Freeman plays a computer nerd, making him the latest and perhaps least likely in a long line of black male computer nerds in movies (such as Ving Rhames in "Mission Impossible"). But at least that's better than Morgan Freeman playing a saintly janitor, because here he gets to use his wicked sense of humor. Michael Caine is also quite funny as Alfred the butler.

I hadn't realized why everybody was giving Tom Cruise such a hard time for publicly dating Katie Holmes, who plays a district attorney (I mean, other than the usual with Tom): she looks like she's 14. She is one creepy-looking little gal.

As for the usual with Tom -- is he gay or not? -- I have no idea. Most people over the age of 25 or so develop enough gaydar to be able to tell from all the little mannerisms that tend to distinguish a straight man from a gay man. I've never seen Cruise seem gay, but he is an excellent actor, and he has that amazing energy, which might allow him to play the role of a straight man 24/7. Further, he used to have the PR muscle to mold his image the way the old studios molded their contract stars' images, but a year ago he fired his very scary PR flack Pat Kingsley and appointed his sister to run his PR, and that family loyalty appears to be backfiring for him now.

As for rumors, normally I assume that where there's smoke, there is probably fire. The one big exception I've found, however, is that rumors that extremely handsome men are gay often don't pan out. A lot of them just turn out to be gay fantasies.

So, I'm totally agnostic on the question.


My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer

Michael Jackson and me

We're the same age, and his troubles reminded me than when we were eleven and I was still in my he-man-girl-hating phase (I invited girls to my 6th and 7th birthday parties, but for the next four or five years after that couldn't recall what madness had ever made me like girls), I felt sorry for him because his family wasn't letting him enjoy his "latency period" (as the Freudians called it). I figured, even then, that forcing him to sing love songs to girls at that age would lead to trouble. (In contrast, I highly approved of his hit "Ben," from the movie "Willard," which was a much more age-appropriate love song to a pet rat )

Jacob Weisberg, the editor of Slate, feels the same way today (not about girls, I mean, but about Jackson's upbringing). In "Arrested Development," he writes:

People tend to throw up hands at Michael Jackson's multifarious bizarreness. But is it really so strange? The boy was forced to work by a cruel and physically abusive father starting at the age of 7. (If he'd been sent into a factory or coal mine, instead of onstage, we'd have more compassion for him.) As a boy, he was denied what even most abused and underprivileged children have: school, friends, and play.

Instead, Michael was made into a performing sexualized freak, a boy whose soprano voice kindled passion in grown women. He was made to witness adult sexuality at an age when it can only have been terrifying and incomprehensible to him. By 10, he was performing in strip clubs and hiding under the covers in hotel rooms while his older brothers got it on with groupies. At 11—the age at which his psyche seems frozen—he was a superstar. "My childhood was completely taken away from me," he has said. Almost everything that seems freakish about him can be explained by his poignant, doomed effort to get his stolen childhood back.


My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer

June 14, 2005

Best estimate yet of Hispanic-American IQ

Everyone across the political spectrum admits that the white-black test score gap is a major social problem, but nobody is thinking about the white-Hispanic test score gap, even though we have much more influence through immigration policy over whether Hispanics will be a large or huge proportion of the American population in the future. Fortunately, the facts are available, but they take a lot of digging to uncover.

Here's the best estimate I've yet seen: A 2001 meta-analysis of 39 studies covering a total 5,696,519 individuals in America (aged 14 and above) came up with an overall difference of 0.72 standard deviations in g (the "general factor" in cognitive ability) between "Anglo" whites and Hispanics. The 95% confidence range of the studies ran from .60 to .88 standard deviations, so there's not a huge amount of disagreement among the studies.

One standard deviation equals 15 IQ points, so that's a gap of 10.8 IQ points, or an IQ of 89 on the Lynn-Vanhanen scale where white Americans equal 100. That would imply the average Hispanic would fall at the 24th percentile of the white IQ distribution. This inequality gets worse at higher IQs Assuming a normal distribution, 4.8% of whites would fall above 125 IQ versus only 0.9% of Hispanics, which explains why Hispanics are given ethnic preferences in prestige college admissions.

In contrast, 105 studies of 6,246,729 individuals found an overall white-black gap of 1.10 standard deviations, or 16.5 points. (I typically round this down to 1.0 standard deviation and 15 points). So, the white-Hispanic gap appears to be about 65% as large as the notoriously depressing white-black gap. (Warning: this 65% number does not come from a perfect apples to apples comparison because more studies are used in calculating the white-black difference than the white-Hispanic difference.)

Source: Roth, P. L., Bevier, C. A., Bobko, P., Switzer III, F. S. & Tyler, P. (2001) " Ethnic group differences in cognitive ability in employment and educational settings: a meta-analysis." Personnel Psychology 54, 297–330.

This fits well with lots of other data. For example, Hispanics generally do almost as badly on the National Assessment of Educational Progress school achievement tests as blacks, but that average is dragged down by immigrant kids who have problems adjusting to English. The last time the NAEP asked about where the child was born was 1992, and Dr. Stefan Thernstrom of Harvard kindly provided me with the data from that examination. For foreign-born Hispanics, the typical gap versus non-Hispanic whites was 1.14 times as large as the black-white gap. But for American-born Hispanics, the gap between non-Hispanic whites and American-born Hispanics was 0.67 times as large as the gap between non-Hispanic whites and blacks, very similar to the 0.65 difference seen in the meta-analysis of IQs.


My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer

Best estimate yet of white-Hispanic IQ gap

I've been doing a lot of research on this subject lately because, frankly, it's shameful and alarming that America's elites are carrying out a vast social experiment by emasculating enforcement of the laws against illegal immigration, yet almost nobody is discussing the facts about what kind of new version of America they are creating. Everyone across the political spectrum admits that the white-black test score gap is a major social problem, but nobody is thinking about the white-Hispanic test score gap. Fortunately, the facts are available, but they take a lot of digging to uncover.

Here's the best estimate I've yet seen: A 2001 meta-analysis of 39 studies covering a total 5,696,519 individuals in America (aged 14 and above) came up with an overall difference of 0.72 standard deviations in g (the "general factor" in cognitive ability) between "Anglo" whites and Hispanics. The 95% confidence range of the studies ran from .60 to .88 standard deviations, so there's not a huge amount of disagreement among the studies.

One standard deviation equals 15 IQ points, so that's a gap of 10.8 IQ points, or an IQ of 89 on the Lynn-Vanhanen scale where white Americans equal 100. That would imply the average Hispanic would fall at the 24th percentile of the white IQ distribution. This inequality gets worse at higher IQs Assuming a normal distribution, 4.8% of whites would fall above 125 IQ versus only 0.9% of Hispanics, which explains why Hispanics are given ethnic preferences in prestige college admissions.

In contrast, 105 studies of 6,246,729 individuals found an overall white-black gap of 1.10 standard deviations. So, the white-Hispanic gap appears to be about 65% as large as the notoriously depressing white-black gap. (Warning: this 65% number does not come from a perfect apples to apples comparison because more studies are used in calculating the white-black difference than the white-Hispanic difference.)

Source: Roth, P. L., Bevier, C. A., Bobko, P., Switzer III, F. S. & Tyler, P. (2001) Ethnic group differences in cognitive ability in employment and educational settings: a meta-analysis. Personnel Psychology 54, 297–330.


My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer

June 13, 2005

Nothando Dube Mania!

For reasons that remain inexplicable, thousands of people have visited iSteve today via Google searches for "Nothando Dube," a ninth-grader who recently became the 12th bride of the King of Swaziland. Why?

I must say though that King Mswata III could give Phil Spector a run for his money in the 'fro department.


My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer

June 12, 2005

Charismatic Intellectual Leaders

As I've said before, I am not dismissive of the Kevin MacDonald-Neocon theory of eugenic breeding for scholarship among medieval Jews. I just think that now that MacDonald's theory has become the favored alternative among Jewish intellectuals to the Cochran-Hardy-Harpending theory of greater survival among the children of the wealthy, it's time for the MacDonald theory's supporters to show how much quantitative evidence can be assembled in its favor. It's not enough just to indicate that the direction was favorable for the evolution of intelligence, but some effort must be made to show that the magnitude of the eugenic affect was large enough to matter.

Still, there is a sense in which the MacDonald-Neocon theory of eugenic breeding to produce argument-winning rabbis has some intuitive plausibility in that Ashkenazis don't seem adapted just for business success but also for the kind of intellectual combat that is sometimes inimical to making money. I'm not sure that we see that combination in other middle man minorities with a talent for business, such as the Armenians. This Ashkenazi tendency is probably just cultural, but it sure is long lasting.

Personally, I find this Jewish "culture of critique" highly appealing. The inevitable question, it brings up, though, is whether Jewish cultural tendencies should be the only ones completely excluded from any critique by outsiders. I can understand the argument that Jewish vulnerability should mean that Jewish cultural traits must remain above analysis, but in the 21st Century that stance seems historically obsolete.

MacDonald, for all his sins, does point out something highly important for understanding the modern world, something extraordinarily obvious but which I had never noticed before reading his account a half decade ago: the importance of extra-rational charisma in the appeal of egomaniacal, messianic intellectuals like Marx and Freud to younger Jewish students. Over the last 150 years, secular Jewish intellectuals have repeatedly reproduced the traditional brilliant rabbi-student relationship in launching powerful cults. Among the more recent examples have been Ayn Rand (see Murray N. Rothbard's hilarious 1972 article "The Sociology of the Ayn Rand Cult"), Susan Sontag (see Terry Castle's hilarious 2005 article "Desperately Seeking Susan"), and Leo Strauss (see the unintentionally hilarious 2003 article "What Leo Strauss Was Up To" by two true believers, William Kristol and Steven Lenzer).

Kristol, who seems like a non-wacko on TV, and Lenzer wrote in the normally level-headed Public Interest about how only Strauss possessed the secret decoder ring to understand what the great philosophers of the past actually meant.

"Strauss set himself a remarkable task: the revival of Western reading, and therefore, of philosophizing. Strauss claimed that he had rediscovered a forgotten kind of writing, and that for almost two centuries the proper manner of reading the greatest works of the past had apparently disappeared. If Strauss in fact rediscovered the art of writing, then he made possible the revival of Western letters. If Strauss's work is sound, he made it possible for us today to appreciate great books in the spirit and manner in which they were written. And the almost universal vehemence with which his rediscovery was initially denounced and ridiculed by the scholarly world demonstrated just how completely this art had been lost. No passage of Strauss's more vividly captures what was entailed by this rediscovery than his account of Machiavelli's art of writing:

"'Time and again we have become bewildered by the fact that the man [Machiavelli] who is more responsible than any other man for the break with the Great Tradition should in the very act of breaking prove to be the heir, the by no means unworthy heir, to that supreme art of writing which that tradition manifested at its peaks. The highest art has its roots, as he well knew, in the highest necessity. The perfect book or speech obeys in every respect the pure and merciless laws of what has been called logographic necessity. The perfect speech contains nothing slipshod; in it there are no loose threads; it contains no word that has been picked up at random; it is not marred by errors due to faulty memory or to any other kind of carelessness; strong passions and a powerful and fertile imagination are guided with ease by a reason which knows how to use the unexpected gift, which knows how to persuade and which knows how to forbid; it allows of no adornment which is not imposed by the gravity and the aloofness of the subject matter; the perfect writer rejects with disdain and some impatience the demand of vulgar rhetoric that expressions must be varied since change is pleasant.'"

In other words, if there is anything that seems imperfect in the writings of famous old philosophers, it's not really imperfect. It's all part of the plan. It's actually part of a secret code that Strauss alone has decoded to discover the philosophers' inner meaning.

Where have you heard this kind of thing before? In chain e-mails offering you a new way to ferret out the secrets of the Bible or Nostradamus or the Great Pyramid! It's the kind of thing that led Madonna to the Kabbalah. In short, Strauss was a charismatic crackpot.

Strauss's claim that from 1750 onward the great philosophers' secret technique of writing was understood by nobody (and "nobody" includes some fairly sharp guys like Schopenhauer and Nietzsche) except of him is crackpottery of the highest order. So is his insistence that the great philosophical books of the past were written in "perfect speech." C'mon, they were written by human beings. Indeed, some of Aristotle's most important works may not even be written by him, but are merely compilations of his students' notes on his peripatetic lectures. They sure don't sound perfect when you read them. Further, the vast majority don't exist in original form. All we have are transcriptions by monks and Arabs.

Strauss could have been a character from a Jorge Luis Borges short story. That he was instead a life-changing influence on a group of men as influential as Kristol Jr. seems worthy of its own Borges story about a crackpot scholar whose bizarre take on reality takes on a reality its own.

What's actually odder, though, is the hunger you see in Kristol Jr. and other worldly, powerful neocons to be true believers in the Strauss cult.

A reader writes:

A good book I don't think I've ever gotten anyone else to read is Stanley Rothman and S. Robert Lichter's "Roots of Radicalism: Jews, Christians, and the Left." It's basically about where the '60s radicals came from. They break it into two groups, leaders and followers. Did the studies, has statistics, etc. And he shows pretty convincingly that nearly all the leaders were Jewish kids, while most of the followers were Christian kids.

If I remember right, the Jewish kids came from mommy-dominated households that usually supported the kid's political activities. Many of these families turn out to have had backgrounds in Communism or extreme leftism of one sort or another, so the kid wasn't breaking with family tradition, he was doing what they always did. Rothman's pretty convincing when he writes about how leftism and radicalism served these families as replacements for the Judaism they'd lost, and he paints a picture I found convincing of millennia of Jewish experience -- shtetls, persecutions, fervent Orthodoxy, argumentation, etc -- suddenly finding itself in America, where it's free, and they aren't persecuting it. So you had all these wild-eyed, charismatic, brilliant people, suddenly without the compression of traditional life. What to do with all that fire and brilliance? Answer: Marx, Freud, civil rights, etc.

Interesting that he doesn't talk about the Jewish kids or families being smarter than the Christian kids, just more fiery, Messianic, charismatic, and supported by their families in it all. I came away with a picture in my head of these brilliant Jewish kids kind of performing for the family and the ethnic group, and (probably without thinking about it) somewhat at the expense of ... America. (Rothman's view of this isn't far from Macdonald's, even though Rothman is Jewish.) Feeling they were doing America a favor by taking her apart.

My friend XXX XXX certainly had a lot of these qualities -- was charismatic, funny, brilliant, a born performer. And had a kind of messianic-therapeutic, "transformative" view of what art could or should be. It was very galvanizing, looked like loads of fun, you wanted to go and do likewise and ask XXX's opinion about everything, including yourself -- but if you followed XXX's advice, you'd inevitably wind up in a terrible state. Your life would fall apart.

My experience with therapy in NYC was similar. I wanted some practical advice, but wound up in this long wrangle with everything and then some. The idea seemed to be that you had to dismantle your entire personality, and that this would liberate something, and then you'd go be a big success. I found that the approach just left me inert. (Of course, the therapist was doing quite well for himself.) All of which does make me ever-so-slightly sympathetic to the idea that these brilliant Jews give out advice that's almost designed to cripple the people it's given to. All the while claiming it's for everyone's good, and charging a pretty penny for doing so. I could never accuse them of being anything but well-meaning. But I had to learn to see through the posing, the fiery eyes, and the preaching. My wife and I often joke that what therapy is really about (and what it's genuinely good for) is letting Jewish clients talk about themselves for an hour, and then get back to being workaholics. Not a model that meant anything to me!

Many of the Jewish radical kids went on to do very well for themselves. Rothman says that the '60s Christian radical kids by contrast were earnest. They came from Daddy-dominated households, and the families were usually ticked off by the kids' rebellion. Which meant that the kids weren't performing for the family's approval; they were acting out their own drama, and many of them wound up cut off from their families. (I seem to remember that that's where a lot of New Age Christianity came from -- hippies who'd lost their way, basically, and who needed to establish a relationship with a new Daddy.) Cut off from money and advantages too: many of the Christian radical-kids wound up not doing well for themselves.

Anyway, I found "Roots of Radicalism" a fabulous and enlightening book. Made more sense of the '60s for me than anything else I've ever read or seen.


My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer

Jewish Intellectuals Endorse Kevin MacDonald's Theory of Jewish Eugenic Breeding!

In The American Spectator, Jay D. Homnick denounces the Cochran-Harpending-Hardy theory for suggesting that Jews got smart via business instead of via eugenic breeding for scholarship:

Any reasonable scientific mind, not catechized by the Church of Latter-Day Determinists [Homnick seems to be under the impression that the U. of Utah-affiliated authors are Mormons, which they aren't], would conclude that if people seemed to have produced very smart work 3,000 years ago and are calculably smart today, then there is likely to be one cause for this long trans-historic run of intellectual excellence.

FURTHERMORE, MANY PARTS of Eastern Europe had socioeconomic conditions which forced the vast majority of Jews to be shoemakers, tailors, and carpenters. Yet the children of those people, once liberated into urban modernity, dominated the academy, the arts and wide swaths of the political arena.

The correct answer is simple enough but difficult to ascertain in the laboratory. The Jews developed their intellect by studying the Torah as a lifetime passion. The moment a young boy showed signs of being bright, the Rabbi would make sure that he was singled out for extra instruction in Talmud. When the kid became too smart for him, he sent him up to a greater scholar and on upwards. Later, after the first Yeshiva opened in Eastern Europe in 1804, this system became more formalized.

It is an open, incontrovertible fact that the hierarchical system of pride and privilege within Judaism was built on intellect, analytical skills, and scholarly knowledge. Indeed this eventually created a backlash in the 1700s, when the Hasidic movement was begun with the explicit goal of deemphasizing scholarship and focusing on simpler virtues.

This was how the genetics of intelligence was fostered. Scholars taught other scholars and their children married each other. There was also a strong culture encouraging beautiful women to marry scholars (unlike de Maupassant's false assertion to the contrary) so that the children would be smart and good-looking. People of wealth were honored to subsidize the intellectual activity with their assets.

It is much more common when reading about a brilliant Jewish author and scientist to find that he came from a family of Rabbinic scholars than from a family of bankers. Just read the signature of Maimonides, one of the great geniuses of history, upon completing at age 30 his commentary on the Mishna: "I am Moses, son of Maimon the Judge (of Jewish Law) son of Rabbi Joseph the Wise son of Isaac the Judge son of Joseph the Judge son of Obadiah the Judge son of Rabbi Solomon the Rabbi son of Rabbi Obadiah the Judge."

This appears to be the most common response. It's fascinating to see how popular with Jewish intellectuals is Kevin MacDonald's theory that medieval Jews practiced eugenic breeding for IQ. Who would have guessed it?

Well, I probably should have guessed it from the enormous popularity of Steven D. Levitt's abortion-cut-crime theory, both to pro-choicers and pro-lifers. Its main appeal is its covert eugenic logic of abortion being most used by blacks and the poor [as Stalin would say, "No man, no problem"]. The historical fact that the youth murder rate skyrocketed among the first generation born after legalization is simply waved away because Levitt's crypto-eugenic reasoning is so appealing to contemporary intellectuals.


My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer

June 10, 2005

The Iraq-Syria Border: It's worse than we thought...

A grim story from the AP:


Militants killed five U.S. Marines and authorities found 21 bodies Friday near the Syrian border, where American and Iraqi troops bore down in two recent major operations aimed at crushing a tenacious insurgency.

The killings were a clear sign of the profound difficulties faced by U.S. and Iraqi forces in Anbar province around the dusty, lawless frontier town of Qaim, and their inability to seal the porous desert border with Syria despite major efforts to boost their military presence in the area.

The 21 Iraqi bodies were found near Qaim, 80 miles west of Haqlaniyah, along a highway that meanders along the Euphrates River and into Syria. The bodies were in three locations, haphazardly dumped by the roadside in a gravel pit and in sand flats. Three were beheaded and at least one had been mauled by animals.

U.S. military intelligence officials believe the Qaim area sits at the crossroads of a major route used by groups such as Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's al-Qaida in Iraq to smuggle foreign fighters into the country.

"It's like the Mexican-American border there. There are attempts being made to seal it," a senior U.S. military intelligence official said on condition he remain unnamed for security reasons.


My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer

Affordable Family Formation at work in the Lonely Hearts columns

John Kass writes in The Chicago Tribune:



Kevin J. McGraw, a student of finches and other birds, is working toward his doctorate in evolutionary biology at the esteemed Cornell University in New York...

It's all in his latest study, "Environmental Predictors of Geographic Variation in Human Mating Preferences," published in Ethology, a European scientific journal.

But if you don't have the latest copy of Ethology handy, let's just call his study by an earthier, more precise title:

What do women really want in a guy, anyway?

"That's what I tried to determine," McGraw said on the phone Tuesday from his Cornell office. "And so we studied the lonely-hearts ads in newspapers from many cities."

One of those newspapers was the [Chicago] Tribune. He read hundreds of personal ads from the Trib and other newspapers across the country. He examined the words in the ads, those that fell into four categories: physical attractiveness, resources, emotional stability and hobbies. The frequency of words in these categories enabled McGraw to figure out what women really want. It's scientific.

You might think big-city women want men who are gentle, kind, compassionate, sensitive.

And you'd be wrong, wrong, wrong.

In cities like Chicago, Los Angeles, Boston and Miami, women don't go weak for sensitive, caring guys, no matter what anyone told you.

Cash wins. As does the big luxury car; the expensive suits; the strong, handsome jaw line; the alpha personality.

"It's a question of resources," McGraw said. "Women want what birds want. They're looking for the strong genes. They're searching for a mate that will provide what they need to raise a family.

"And in big-city environments, crowded areas with lots of people, women are attracted on average to men who will accumulate these resources."

So what happened to the sensitive male?

"The sensitive male?" McGraw asked, snickering politely.

Yeah, the sensitive male, the guy without much money, without the good looks or Scorpion King physique. You know, that caring, nurturing male, the gentle guy that women are supposed to go for?

"Well, now, the sensitive male, on average, he's not going to be able to pass on his genes in a big city," McGraw said. "He'll have to move to a small town."

Yes, it sounds cruel and harsh, but ovenbirds and finches have it tough too. It's not like men didn't already know this truth.

Birds, chicks, lions, guppies, whatever. Men are easily manipulated. The females are the ones with the power to choose.

While big-city women want power, McGraw found that in smaller towns, women tend to prize emotional stability--kindness, gentleness--in a man.

So if you are single guy without much money and you're looking for the woman of your dreams, you better move to a city of more modest size, like Montgomery, Ala.

"A female bird needs resources to complete her breeding attempts in a season, and so she's going to find a male who can provide for her," McGraw said. "We transferred that idea to humans and found, that in a dense population, women really, truly emphasize things about a man that can help her get those resources to survive and reproduce."

"It's an indicator of resources," he said. "But women also highly prize physical attractiveness. They care about emotional stability on average, throughout the survey. Only in larger, more densely populated cities, resources win out."

Happily, the women of the Chicago metropolitan area aren't all that materialistic. Well, almost.

The mercenary women of San Francisco beat them, followed by women in Los Angeles and Boston. According to the study, the women of the Chicago area are slightly greedier than the women of Miami. And that's fine with me.

Women who care more about sensitive men live in cities like Montgomery, New Orleans and St. Louis.

"The big-city girls like the sugar daddies, as people have called it," McGraw said. "And the nice guys win out in the small cities. So there's still hope."

He means, for the species.

jskass@tribune.com

Clearly, the correlation is with the cost of living, especially the cost of housing. See my article "Affordable Family Formation" on how the cost of housing, marriage, and children makes some states red and other states blue.


Judging by mass murderer Chai Vang's success with the ladies, however, perhaps when gentlemen fill out their Personal ads, they should also advertise themselves as possessing an "itchy trigger finger." That seems to set feminine hearts aflutter.


My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer

"Mass murderers -- can't live with 'em, can't live without 'em!"

In a Chicago Tribune article about Chai Vang, the 36-year-old Laotian Hmong immigrant who murdered six hunters in Wisconsin, I found this nugget:

"After living in refugee camps in Thailand, he was relocated to St. Paul in June 1980. After working in trucking jobs in California, he said he moved back to Minnesota in 2000. Vang also said he had been married three times and had seven children."

An Open Letter to the Women of the World: I know there's something about dangerous wackos like this fellow that sets your hearts to going pitty-pat, but, really ... Have you ever thought about how much better this world would be if, when meeting a potentially homicidal maniac, you didn't always act upon that urge to have his baby?


My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer

Milton Friedman on Bush

Here's an important interview with the 92-year-old grand master economist (via ParaPundit):

Friedman supported Bush's first-term candidacy, but he is more accurately libertarian than conservative and not a reliable Bush ally.

Progress in his goal of rolling back the role of government, he said, is "being greatly threatened, unfortunately, by this notion that the U.S. has a mission to promote democracy around the world," a big Bush objective.

"War is a friend of the state," Friedman said. It is always expensive, requiring higher taxes, and, "In time of war, government will take powers and do things that it would not ordinarily do."

He also said it was no coincidence that budget surpluses appeared during the Clinton administration, when a Democratic president faced a Republican Congress.

"There were no big spending programs during the Clinton administration," he said. "As a result, government spending tended to stay down, the economy grew like mad, taxes went up, spending did not, and lo and behold, the deficit was turned into a surplus."

The problem now, he said, is that Republicans control both ends of Washington.

"There's no question if we're holding down spending, a Democratic president and a Republican House and Senate is the proper combination."


My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer

Hillel Halkin on Cochran-Harpending theory in neocon NY Sun

A reader writes:

I thought it was also "fair and balanced" as they say.

The link is here, but you have to be a subscriber to read the whole thing:

Halkin says what so many other Jewish commentators are saying: that there's probably some truth here, but that Jewish eugenic practices (marrying rich girls to brilliant Talmud students) probably matters more.

I think the reason why Jewish commentators prefer this theory is obvious: they want to think that their achievement is due to cultural factors, because that means Jewish culture and religion (which they love) are objectively good things. If Jewish achievement is largely due to historical accident (Christian restrictions on Jewish occupations to moneylending and trade leading to natural selection for higher intelligence) then that's less flattering.


In recent years, the main spokesman for this theory of Jewish eugenic breeding for higher IQ that the Jewish commentators prefer over Cochran-Harpending's new natural selection theory has been Cal State Long Beach psychologist Kevin MacDonald. Perhaps MacDonald will now become popular with neocons ...


What I liked best about Halkin's essay, though, was his conclusion: okay, Jews have always known we're very smart. But we're also very stupid - that is to say: we have an incredible knack for being smart but not wise. And wisdom, in the final analysis, probably matters more.


As somebody who is a pretty good analyst about how the world works but a lousy decision-maker when it comes to my own life, I greatly sympathize. I wrote an article about the bright and wealthy Parsis of Bombay a couple of years ago in large part because I hoped it might encourage Jews to study an ethnic group with a lot of similar characteristics to their own, but one that has enjoyed a less tragic history. I don't know whether there is anything for Jews to learn from the behavior of the Parsees or not, but it could hardly hurt Jews to take a look.


So many folks seem to be reacting to the paper through the lens of Fiddler on the Roof, and questioning the premise that most Jews were engaged in finance or trade. Halkin seems to be reacting through the lens of The Chosen (you remember: the plot revolves around a Talmud prodigy who is "raised in silence" by his ultra-Orthodox father because said father is worried that while his son is super-bright he lacks the natural sympathy and compassion that are necessary for a strong ethical backbone). I found that refreshing.

Halkin's a very good guy. He's published regularly in Commentary, and he's been taking a lot of heat for coming out strongly in favor of the disengagement from the Palestinians - both in Gaza and in the bulk of Judea and Samaria.


My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer

Slapdash Steve Levitt Rides Again: Abortion and Infanticide

Slapdash Steve Levitt Rides Again: I'm starting to realize that you can't trust anything economist Steven D. Levitt says in his bestseller Freakonomics without checking it out on Google for yourself. A reader called my attention today to Levitt's statement on p. 139:

To be sure, the legalization of abortion had myriad consequences. Infanticide fell dramatically.

When I originally read this a few months ago, I thought to myself: "How could anyone possibly doubt that?"

Well, I should have realized that if Levitt tells you the sun is coming up in the East, you'd better get outside and check for yourself. Here is what Child Trends Databank had to say about homicides of infants (below age 1):

The infant homicide rate increased from 4.3 per 100,000 in 1970 to 9.2 per 100,000 in 2000, before falling to 7.8 per 100,000 in 2003 (preliminary estimate). In 2003, 318 infants died due to homicide.

Their graph shows that infanticide increased from a 4.3 rate in 1970 (when there were only about 200,000 legal abortions) to 5.9 in 1980 (when there were about eight times more abortions)!

Moreover, when infanticide is looked at by ethnic group for year 2002, there's a positive correlation between the abortion rate and the infanticide rate.

The FBI statistics for homicides of children under 5 only go back to 1976, so nothing too definitive can be seen here, but you'd expect to see, according to Levitt's statement, a decrease in the white numbers over the first half decade as the white abortion rate continued to rise. Instead, the small child homicide numbers did not fall. Indeed they finally peaked in 1996, and the black numbers peaked in 1993.

Then I looked up the abstract of the paper that Freakonomics cites on p. 223 as the source for the contention that "Infanticide fell dramatically." Here's what the authors of that study actually say:

We examined 1960-1998 U.S. mortality data for children under 5 years of age using an interrupted time series design. The legalization of abortion was not associated with a sudden change in child homicide trends. It was, however, associated with a steady decrease in the homicides of toddlers (i.e., 1- to 4-year-olds) in subsequent years. Although in the predicted direction, the decrease in homicides of children under 1 year of age was not statistically significant.


My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer

June 9, 2005

Ashkenazi vs. "Sephardic" intelligence

Because the Cochran-Harpending theory applies only to Jews whose ancestors spoke Yiddish, it raises the issue of the long term gap within Israel between the educationally dominant Ashkenazis and the faster-reproducing non-Ashkenazis, who are traditionally called "Sephardic" Jews, even though a large fraction of them are descended from Jews who were never in Spain. (American neocons will eventually figure out that they don't like people talking about this because the Likud Party draws much of its support from the lower IQ sub-ethnicities within Israel. Of course, lower IQ individuals have just as much right to have their votes counted as higher IQ individuals, but everybody likes to believe that their views are self-evident to anybody with brains and that people who disagree with them must be mentally defective.)

Howard Metzenberg has written a critique of the Cochran-Hardy-Harpending paper called "An Unnatural History of Jewish Population Genetics" that argues against a strong distinction between the Ashkenazis and others.

First, Metzenberg rightly notes:

One source of confusion in any discussion of the relative intellectual performance of different Jewish groups, is that the label “Sephardic” is sometimes attached to all non-Ashkenazi Jews, although some are more accurately labeled Mizrahi, and others such as the Ethiopians, are none of the above.

So, it's important to keep in mind that the glittering northwest European colonies of Sephardic refugees that produced Spinoza, Ricardo, and Disraeli aren't totally representative of this All Other category in Israel.

Metzenberg asserts:

The best evidence is that Jews of the urban Sephardic and Mizrahi communities in countries such as Egypt, Iraq, and Iran were concentrated in intellectual occupations just as the European Jews were.

Probably. But we're they concentrated just as much? The historical record shows the Jews in Islamic countries periodically getting kicked out of the good jobs in finance and being sent off to be tanners or other jobs where there's not as much upside for high IQ individuals. That's not true for Northern Europe, where Jewish occupations were consistently upscale until the great Ashkenazi population surge of the last few centuries.

No doubt the Middle Eastern Jews were often smarter than the local Arabs, but that's not necessarily the same as being smarter than the local Germans. With Arab IQs today typically running in the 80s, you don't have to be an Einstein to be brighter than them.

Nor is it clear that Middle Eastern Jews were consistently the brightest minority in their region, as you would see in Europe. I believe Evelyn Waugh reported an old saying he picked up while traveling in the Near East that went something like this: It takes two Arabs to outsmart a Greek, two Greeks to outsmart a Jew, and two Jews to outsmart an Armenian. (Waugh was a big fan of Armenians.)

Then Metzenberg asserts that the three papers the authors cite on the IQ gap in Israel between Ashkenazi and the others are outdated. Granted, there hasn't been, as far as I can tell from a cursory Google search, a lot of published work on the IQ gap in Israel in recent years, although that is more likely to have to do with the rise of the Likud Party to power than that the IQ gap has disappeared. Back when the Ashkenazi-dominated Labour Party beat Likud eight times in a row, data on the IQ gap was less resented by the government than today when Likud is frequently running things. If the gap has disappeared, I think you would have heard about it.

Metzenberg claims that the Israeli population is now so mixed that nobody could possibly unravel the Ashkenazi from all other today, but I don't think that complete melding has quite gone through the formality of taking place yet. It's true that, with the exception of the one-time event of the arrival of the Russian Jews, Israel has been becoming culturally less of a European and more of a Middle Eastern country. But it's hardly true that social science research has stopped on the subethnic gap within Israel.

For example, in 2004, Cohen, Haberfeld, and Kristal wrote:

This paper analyzes gaps in the college graduation rates of third-generation Ashkenazim and Mizrahim (the two major ethnic groups among Israeli Jews), in comparison to the same gaps among members of the second generation. The empirical analyses have been performed using a special file of the 1995 Israeli census which matched records of respondents to their parents in the 1983 Census, thereby allowing identification of the ethnicity of the third generation for a representative sample of men and women, 25-34 years of age in 1995, as well as the identification of persons of mixed ethnicity. The results suggest that the gaps between the two major ethnic groups are not smaller in the third generation than in the second generation. Persons of mixed ethnicity – of both the second and third generations – are located about midway between the two ethnic groups with respect to their college graduation rates.


Even an article in Haaretz entitled "The Ethnic Gap Is Closing" makes clear in its opening line that that's not the general opinion of Israelis:


Despite the conventional wisdom, the ethnic gap in Israel is consistently narrowing, and will be eliminated within a generation, says a new study.


The study goes on to document that the gap between Ashkenazim and "Sephardim" in secondary school attendance has narrowed. However, the last paragraph makes clear that this increasing equality in secondary education is more quantitative than qualitative:


The bad news is that in spite of the narrowing of the gap in high-school education, there are indications of a new trend of a gap in how the students read the labor market. Friedlander, who will be featuring the subject in his next research study, says, "There is a very basic difference between Sephardim and Ashkenazim in the choice of what they study in high school. We feel that students of Asian and African descent do not always study the `right things' in terms of the needs of the labor market or future income. Admission to universities is now very much conditional upon knowledge of English and mathematics, but the percentage of Israelis of Asian and African descent who take enriched English and mathematics in high school is very small in comparison to Israelis of European and American descent. I would say that there is no difference in quantitative exposure to high-school study, but there is a significant difference, I'm afraid, in what they study, and this of course has an effect on admission to university."


This sounds similar to the narrowing of the gap in high school attendance between black and white Americans without much narrowing of the IQ gap.

So, it would appear that there is still a gap within Israel between the Ashkenazis and the All Others.


My published articles are archived at iSteve.com -- Steve Sailer