March 15, 2005

The New York Times and Me on Race

The New York Times has been sound on the existence of race for a few years: Many were amazed that the NYT dared publish Tuesday's long op-ed "A Family Tree in Every Gene" by Armand Marie Leroi emphasizing the validity and usefulness of race as an important scientific concept.

But, the NYT has been strong on the reality or ace for some time. Two years ago, I wrote on VDARE:

A Couple of Wild-Eyed Wackos: Me and the New York Times

By Steve Sailer

While many journalists write about race, I'm widely considered beyond the pale because I frequently write about it from a scientific perspective. My approach is seen as prima facieNational Review’s Jonah Goldberg and David Frum both announced that they were shocked, shocked that I often "concentrate on genetic questions," as Jonah put it.

Neither has taken up my offer to publicly debate the topic. But that seems to be their point: some entire subjects are just so far beyond the boundaries of polite discussion that all a dignified pundit need do is point and squeal in horror.

After all, who else besides me reports on the genetics of race?

Well, the New York Times is who.

For several years now, the newspaper of record's distinguished correspondent Nicholas WadeNature, then moved to the top American scholarly periodical, Science, before going to the NYT. He is the author of Life Script: How the Human Genome Discoveries Will Transform Medicine and Enhance Your HealthNew York Times Books on Genetics, The Brain, Archaeology, Language and Linguistics, Fossils and Evolution, and the like. He is clearly the most important genetics reporter in the United States.

Below are excerpts from a dozen of his NYT articles. I hope calling attention to this major aspect of Wade's work doesn't get him fired. But he definitely has the science on his side.

Much of Wade’s work is clearly driven by a concern for improving humanity's health. He fears that the "Race Does Not Exist" crowd will condemn sick people to death by keeping doctors from learning what treatments are appropriate for each patient’s genes. (Last year, the New York Times Magazine printed a fascinating article by Sally Satel, "I Am a Racially Profiling Doctor," making a similar point.).

Click here for the rest of the article including numerous excerpts from Wade's NY Times articles.


Steve Sailer's homepage and blog is iSteve.com

Indian nutritional superstitions

India vs. China, Again: An Indian writes that to become internationally competitive in sports, India should emulate China by picking out weak sports with little competition:

Looking at what events suit us best and focusing resources on that. Wasting tons of money on the 100m dash which no Indian is ever going to win in a million years is dumb.

The other thing to do is improve nutrition. But to do that they would have to overcome more superstition about food than ever existed in the rest of the world combined. There's a funny saying about Indians and Chinese. India and China are neighbours. Yet, the Chinese eat anything that moves and Indians fret about Onions and Garlic.


Steve Sailer's homepage and blog is iSteve.com

March 14, 2005

Maryland U.S. Senate Candidate Kweisi Mfume's real name is ...

Frizzell Gray. With Snoop Dogg's "-izzle" slang so popular these days, maybe Kweisi will change his name back to Frizzell to appeal to the youth vote.

Here's a bio:

Born Frizzell Gray, Mfume grew up in a West Baltimore home with an abusive stepfather as the oldest sibling with three younger sisters... To survive the raw deal he was given, Gray turned to the streets of Baltimore where he dropped out of school, worked odd jobs, and began associating with street gangs. By the time he was 22, Frizzell Gray had fathered five children out of wedlock. Five. He could have given up on life and immersed himself in crime, drugs and substance abuse. Instead, he rolled up his sleeves and got busy.

Sounds like he was pretty busy before then, too.


Steve Sailer's homepage and blog is iSteve.com

Double Ungood Crimethink from India

"Are Indians Born Losers" asks the Times of India:

MUMBAI: One hears the groan every four years: only one Olympic bronze medal for one billion people...

Experts blame sociological and genetic factors for our sports-deficient culture.

From the Indian thrifty gene to our finer bone structure, from our cereal-rich diet to vitamin-deficient status, doctors like Shashank Joshi blame "Indianness" for our droopy sporting history.

"It's a question of biology," says Dr Anoop Misra from the New Delhi-based All-India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS). An expert in metabolic activity, he was approached by a British researcher to study India's poor sporting performance vis-a-vis that of the white and African populations.

"If the study had materialised, we would focus on the growth hormone as a factor for poor performance in sports," he says. He points out that "any athletic effort requires muscle power in terms of bulk and oxygenation capacity". And – you guessed it – Indians don't have enough of this.

"Ethnic Africans are natural sportsmen as they have muscular bulk," he says. This, in effect, puts paid to Indian hopes in the boxing arena or even the 100-m dash.

Dr Shashank Joshi, endocrinologist with Lilavati Hospital in Mumbai, blames the thrifty genes that Indians have developed following bouts of famine and epidemics over the years. "As a genetic conservation mechanism, our genes learnt to hoard fat in order to survive," he says.

But the thrifty genes are now making Indians living in a zip-zap-zoom urban milieu susceptible to obesity and more-fat-less-muscle creatures. "Indians have 33 per cent body fat compared to 25 per cent in Caucasian or African ethnic groups," says Joshi, who is studying the metabolic activity of ethnic groups in India.

I'm not convinced that India will never amount to much in sports, but they are remarkably bad in right now in everything other than cricket. Of course, they don't seem to care very much either, so it's not that painful.


Steve Sailer's homepage and blog is iSteve.com

Parent Power Finally Exerting Itself in Universities?

Jinnderella, generalizing from the case of the U. of Colorado, where the college president recently resigned under the weight of the on-going scandals involving the running-amok football team and the pseudo-Indian conman Ward Churchill, suggests that the balance of power in a buyer's market for higher education is finally shifting over to the tuition-payers -- i.e., the parents. Also, the Internet makes it easier to keep track of what's going on at the university, and harder for frauds to hide.

Steve Sailer's homepage and blog is iSteve.com

March 13, 2005

NYT: "A Family Tree in Every Gene"

Excellent NYT Op-Ed arguing that Race Does Too Exist, which sounds like a summary of my writings (complete with emphasis on the Andaman Islanders):

A Family Tree in Every Gene
By ARMAND MARIE LEROI
The idea that human races are only social constructs has been the consensus for at least 30 years. But now, perhaps, that is about to change.

His conclusions are pretty much exactly the same as mine, even using many of the same examples. In blue are links to my articles where Leroi (of the U. of London) appears to have found much of the material for his fine essay, with much of the rest coming from GNXP:

One of the minor pleasures of this discovery is a new kind of genealogy. Today it is easy to find out where your ancestors came from - or even when they came, as with so many of us, from several different places. If you want to know what fraction of your genes are African, European or East Asian, all it takes is a mouth swab, a postage stamp and $400 - though prices will certainly fall.

Yet there is nothing very fundamental about the concept of the major continental races; they're just the easiest way to divide things up. Study enough genes in enough people and one could sort the world's population into 10, 100, perhaps 1,000 groups, each located somewhere on the map. This has not yet been done with any precision, but it will be. Soon it may be possible to identify your ancestors not merely as African or European, but Ibo or Yoruba, perhaps even Celt or Castilian, or all of the above.

The identification of racial origins is not a search for purity. The human species is irredeemably promiscuous. We have always seduced or coerced our neighbors even when they have a foreign look about them and we don't understand a word. If Hispanics, for example, are composed of a recent and evolving blend of European, American Indian and African genes, then the Uighurs of Central Asia can be seen as a 3,000-year-old mix of West European and East Asian genes. Even homogenous groups like native Swedes bear the genetic imprint of successive nameless migrations.

Some critics believe that these ambiguities render the very notion of race worthless. I disagree. The physical topography of our world cannot be accurately described in words. To navigate it, you need a map with elevations, contour lines and reference grids. But it is hard to talk in numbers, and so we give the world's more prominent features - the mountain ranges and plateaus and plains - names. We do so despite the inherent ambiguity of words. The Pennines of northern England are about one-tenth as high and long as the Himalayas, yet both are intelligibly described as mountain ranges.

So, too, it is with the genetic topography of our species. The billion or so of the world's people of largely European descent have a set of genetic variants in common that are collectively rare in everyone else; they are a race. At a smaller scale, three million Basques do as well; so they are a race as well. Race is merely a shorthand that enables us to speak sensibly, though with no great precision, about genetic rather than cultural or political differences.

But it is a shorthand that seems to be needed. One of the more painful spectacles of modern science is that of human geneticists piously disavowing the existence of races even as they investigate the genetic relationships between "ethnic groups." Given the problematic, even vicious, history of the word "race," the use of euphemisms is understandable. But it hardly aids understanding, for the term "ethnic group" conflates all the possible ways in which people differ from each other.

Indeed, the recognition that races are real should have several benefits. To begin with, it would remove the disjunction in which the government and public alike defiantly embrace categories

Second, the recognition of race may improve medical care. Different races are prone to different diseases. The risk that an African-American man will be afflicted with hypertensive heart disease or prostate cancer is nearly three times greater than that for a European-American man. On the other hand, the former's risk of multiple sclerosis is only half as great. Such differences could be due to socioeconomic factors. Even so, geneticists have started searching for racial differences in the frequencies of genetic variants that cause diseases. They seem to be finding them.

Race can also affect treatment. African-Americans respond poorly to some of the main drugs used to treat heart conditions - notably beta blockers and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors. Pharmaceutical corporations are paying attention. Many new drugs now come labeled with warnings that they may not work in some ethnic or racial groups. Here, as so often, the mere prospect of litigation has concentrated minds.

Such differences are, of course, just differences in average. Everyone agrees that race is a crude way of predicting who gets some disease or responds to some treatment. Ideally, we would all have our genomes sequenced before swallowing so much as an aspirin. Yet until that is technically feasible, we can expect racial classifications to play an increasing part in health care.

The argument for the importance of race, however, does not rest purely on utilitarian grounds. There is also an aesthetic factor. We are a physically variable species. Yet for all the triumphs of modern genetics, we know next to nothing about what makes us so. We do not know why some people have prominent rather than flat noses, round rather than pointed skulls, wide rather than narrow faces, straight rather than curly hair. We do not know what makes blue eyes blue...

There is a final reason race matters. It gives us reason - if there were not reason enough already - to value and protect some of the world's most obscure and marginalized people. When the Times of India article referred to the Andaman Islanders as being of ancient Negrito racial stock, the terminology was correct. Negrito is the name given by anthropologists to a people who once lived throughout Southeast Asia. They are very small, very dark, and have peppercorn hair. They look like African pygmies who have wandered away from Congo's jungles to take up life on a tropical isle. But they are not... that many, perhaps most, scholars and scientists say do not exist.

Happily, most of the Andamans' Negritos seem to have survived December's tsunami. The fate of one tribe, the Sentinelese, remains uncertain, but an Indian coast guard helicopter sent to check up on them came under bow and arrow attack, which is heartening.

Or maybe it's just parallel evolution, like how pygmy negritos and pygmies look a lot alike, but don't seem to be closely related to each other. It didn't require any unique brilliance on my part to come up with my ideas, mostly just perseverance and honesty.

Let me add a couple of things to Leroi's attack on Lewontin's Fallacy. I wrote back in 2000 in "Seven Dumb Ideas about Race:"

Dumb Idea #6: Most variation is within racial groups, not between racial groups. Two members of the same race are likely to differ from each other more than the average member of their race differs from the average member of another race.

Sure, but so what? No single human category can account for a majority of all the many ways humans differ from each other. Try substituting other categories like "age:" "Most variation is within age groups, not between age groups." Yup, that's true, too. But, it doesn't mean that Age Does Not Exist.

You often hear that between-group racial differences only account for 15% of genetic variation. This number comes from a 1972 study by Richard Lewontin of 17 blood types, comparing variation between continental-scale races and between national-scale racial groups (e.g., Swedes vs. Italians). Now, blood types are, I suppose, important, but they hardly represent all we want to know about human genetic diversity. Certain other traits are known to be more racially determined -- the figure for skin color, not surprisingly, is 60%. What the overall number is for all the important genes remains unknown.

Still, let's assume that Lewontin's 15% solution is widely applicable. That's like going to a casino that has American Indian and African American croupiers, and 85% of the time the roulette spins are random, but 15% of the time the ball always comes up red for Indian croupiers and black for the black croupiers -- pretty useful information, huh?

Also, it's crucial to put Lewontin's 85-15 finding in a comprehensible perspective by comparing it to family relatedness, which we are all familiar with. (Racial groups are, by definition, partly inbred, so the degree of relatedness within a racial group can be comparable to the degree of relatedness within a small extended family.) I wrote in VDARE last year:

Take race denier Richard Lewontin's famous 1972 finding that only 15% of genetic variation is among population groups. This is always interpreted in the popular press to mean that, because there is more genetic diversity within racial groups than between them, therefore (non sequitur alert!) RACIAL DIFFERENCES DO NOT EXIST!!!...

Henry Harpending, a genetic anthropologist at the U. of Utah, says the variation between groups is even lower, more like 12.5%, so let's use that.

What Harpending discovered, and anthropologist Vincent Sarich (UC Berkeley) confirmed, is that Lewontin was using Sewall Wright's way of calculating relatedness, and you need to about double it to make it equivalent to Hamilton's way. So, 12.5% times two is 25%, which is the degree of relatedness between an uncle and his nephew…which, after all, is where the word "nepotism" comes from!

In other words, on average, people are as closely related to other members of their subracial "ethnic" group (e.g., Japanese or Italian) versus the rest of the world as they are related to their nephew versus the rest of their ethnic group.

Steve Sailer's homepage and blog is iSteve.com

VDARE: The White Guy Gap

"The White Guy Gap" - My new VDARE column - An excerpt:

I was long baffled by the enormous, ever-growing popularity of the NASCAR stock car racing circuit. Why is watching Chevies go around and around … and around some more … so incredibly popular?

Finally, some readers pointed out that the answer was staring me in the face: because white American guys always win. Heck, the drivers are almost all British-Americans with a sprinkling of German-Americans like the Earnhardts.

In short, NASCAR is an ethnic pride festival for the one group of people who aren't supposed to hold ethnic pride festivals.

After that, I started to notice that some other institutions were in the business of providing covert identity politics for people who aren't allowed to practice identity politics publicly. Indeed, that perspective provided a novel answer to a couple of questions that a lot of people are asking:

"Why do Republicans win so much these days? But why do they then so seldom use their power to do anything recognizably conservative?"

Admittedly, this new theory is more subjective than my recent quantitative articles in VDARE.com and The American Conservative explaining the 2004 red state - blue state gap: "The Baby Gap," "The Marriage Gap," "The Mortgage Gap," and, underneath it all, "The Dirt Gap."

I guess you can call this one the White Guy Gap.

I suspect that liberals are now paying the price for decades of insulting white men. White males make up about one third of the population, but the problem with white guys, from a liberal perspective, is that they happen to be the people who get most of the big things done in this country. That's just unfair, no, that's downright evil of them.

Now, white men are probably the most tolerant and forbearing of any American group—they've been raised to take it like a man—but they are also only human. So, when they finally do get mad, they are a formidable force.

And, increasingly, the Republican Party has become a covert exercise in identity politics for white men. A peculiarly ineffectual exercise because of the Republican determination to camouflage this fact by promoting policies that obviously do white men no good.

Because white men are, on average, the best team players, the best organizers, and the best managers in America, the Republicans are now consistently beating the Democrats in the blocking and tackling departments of politics, even when the Democrats are closer to objectively correct on issues like the Bush Administration lying the country into the War in Error. The GOP can draw on more—and more motivated—white male talent. ..

There's nothing unnatural about the people who keep the country running wanting to have a large say in running the country. The problem, though, is that white male identity politics is the self-love that dares not speak its name.

So, many Republican white males studiously avoid endorsing policies that would actually help white male Republicans, such as immigration restrictions. [...More]


Steve Sailer's homepage and blog is iSteve.com

My 2003 Articles on Iraq Attaq & Public Opinion

My 2003 Articles on Iraq Attaq & Public Opinion: Here are six articles I wrote while the shooting was going on in the spring of 2003 about public opinion. The first two are probably the most perceptive:

Why No Dancing in the Streets of Iraq?

Questions for Postwar Polls

Which Groups Support the War?

How Interested Is the Public in the War?

Support Up in Fighting Allies

If the War in Iraq Bogs Down...


Steve Sailer's homepage and blog is iSteve.com

Real-Life Babes Not as Buttkicking as in Movies

Larry Auster has the full story on the tragic / Onion-quality-funny incident of the 6'-1" 200 pound defendant who shot up an Atlanta courtroom after overpowering the 5' grandmother assigned to guard him and stealing her gun. "“Women are capable of doing anything men are capable of doing,” the D.A. proclaimed after the killings when questions were raised about having women guard bad dudes. See VFR for more.


Steve Sailer's homepage and blog is iSteve.com

"Millions"

"Millions" -- A family movie from director Danny Boyle of "Trainspotting" and "28 Days Later" has lots of interesting elements and, overall, works well. A very religious little boy, who talks to saints, finds a duffel bag with over 100,000 pounds in it. A not-so-great trainrobber wants it back. He wants to give it to the poor and his cynical big brother wants to spend it. Lots of visual razzle-dazzle from the director. I'm not sure if kids under 12 will be able to follow it.

One interesting (and no doubt realistic) aspect is the fecklessness of the British police. An ineffectual-looking copper with an intellectual's beard addresses a neighborhood meeting (dialogue roughly remembered):

Bobbie: "Christmas is coming so it's a statistical certainty your house will get robbed. But that's what we're here for."

Subject: "To prevent robberies or to catch the criminals?"

Bobbie: "Neither, of course. But after you do get robbed, we will give you your official victimization number so you can file a claim with your insurance company."


Steve Sailer's homepage and blog is iSteve.com

"In My Country"

John "Deliverance" Boorman directs Juliet "The English Patient" Binoche and Samuel L. "Every Other Movie Made" Jackson in a story of the New South Africa's Truth and Reconciliation Commission. Despite the big names involved, it's a dud.

Jackson is grating as an obnoxious Washington Post reporter and Binoche is atrocious as a sensitive Afrikaaner poetess weeping over the sins of her people -- one of the worst performances I've seen in a long time. When they start an affair, several black ladies got up and walked out of the screening. They didn't miss much.


Steve Sailer's homepage and blog is iSteve.com

March 11, 2005

The Youth of America Speaks!

From UC Santa Barbara history professor Albert S. Lindemann's list of his favorite student essay efforts:

Magellan disproved the theory of a flat earth by circumventing the globe.

Sir Francis Drake circumcised the globe with a 100-foot clipper.

Also interesting in the middle ages is the male chauvinism apparent. In those years, most monks were men.

During the Renaissance, man began to reach out and explore himself.

Berlin became the decadent capital of the new republic, where all sorts of sexual deprivations were practiced. A huge anti-Semantic movement arose.


Steve Sailer's homepage and blog is iSteve.com

The Bankruptcy Bill vs. the Left Half of the Bell Curve

I'm no financial genius, but even I know that not paying off your entire credit card balance each month is one of the dumbest things you can do. If you pay it off promptly, you enjoy the wonderful convenience of a credit card and a month's worth of float for pretty much free. If you are dumb enough to fall behind, though, you pay through the nose, thus subsidizing us smart folks' use of credit cards. Which may be why nobody in the media has ever complained much about this system -- it's mostly been exploiting dumb people for the last 40 years, and who cares about them?

Is it too much to ask that the law force credit card companies to explain these finance facts in simple English and large type on each bill?


Steve Sailer's homepage and blog is iSteve.com

March 10, 2005

Robots vs. Immigrants in Japan

The Washington Post writes:

Ms. Saya, a perky receptionist in a smart canary-yellow suit, beamed a smile from behind the "May I Help You?" sign on her desk, offering greetings and answering questions posed by visitors at a local university. But when she failed to welcome a workman who had just walked by, a professor stormed up to Saya and dished out a harsh reprimand.

"You're so stupid!" said the professor, Hiroshi Kobayashi, towering over her desk.

"Eh?" she responded, her face wrinkling into a scowl. "I tell you, I am not stupid!"

Truth is, Saya isn't even human. But in a country where robots are changing the way people live, work, play and even love, that doesn't stop Saya the cyber-receptionist from defending herself from men who are out of line. With voice recognition technology allowing 700 verbal responses and an almost infinite number of facial expressions from joy to despair, surprise to rage, Saya may not be biological -- but she is nobody's fool...

Though perhaps years away in the United States, this long-awaited, as-seen-on-TV world -- think "The Jetsons" or "Blade Runner" -- is already unfolding in Japan, with robots now used as receptionists, night watchmen, hospital workers, guides, pets and more. The onslaught of new robots led the government last month to establish a committee to draw up safety guidelines for the keeping of robots in homes and offices. Officials compiled a report in January predicting that every household in Japan will own at least one robot by 2015, perhaps sooner...

But the robotic rush in Japan is also being driven by unique societal needs. Confronting a major depopulation problem due to a record low birthrate and its status as the nation with the longest lifespan on Earth, Japanese are fretting about who will staff the factory floors of the world's second-largest economy in the years ahead. Toyota, Japan's biggest automaker, has come up with one answer in moving to create a line of worker robots with human-like hands able to perform multiple sophisticated tasks.

Well, hardly unique ... Japan just figures it doesn't want to go the way of the Netherlands by importing large numbers of foreign workers.

With Japanese youth shying from so-called 3-K jobs -- referring to the Japanese words for labor that is dirty, dangerous or physically taxing -- Alsok, the nation's second-largest security guard company, has developed a line of robo-cops. The guard robots, one version of which is already being used by a client in southern Japan, can detect and thwart intruders using sensors and paint guns. They can also put out fires and spot water leaks.

Apparently, the jobs Japanese citizens "just won't do" can be done by robots. (I wrote about this a year ago in "Japanese Substitute Innovation for Immigration."


Steve Sailer's homepage and blog is iSteve.com

Turkey and the EU

A new reader writes:

I was intrigued to see you had applied your unflinching perspective on race and IQ to the Turks, apropos the EU admission business.

My fascination stems, in part, from the fact that I read articles on Turkey and the EU all the time, from all sorts of purported "experts." I am also subjected to daily diatribes of all varieties on the subject--I have live and taught at a Turkish university in XXX for X years--and yet no one seemed as percipient as you in teasing out the contradictions and problems posed by Turkey's potential admission to the EU.

Also, I sense your skepticism dovetails with mine, though mine is more anecdotal. My girlfriend is Turkish, and so I hesitate before embracing these IQ stats you link too...though I understand they are mean averages, and I fear the Turkish figures are probably correct.

So here it is: the issue of intelligence and the Turks, and why I think they should stay out of the EU.

[Briefly, I reported that what little evidence we have suggested that Turkey's national average IQ is about equal to the world average of 90, about 2/3rds of a standard deviation below Europe's, or similar to Mexico's. In other words, not bad, but also not likely to fully assimilate into Europe.]

I speak from anecdotal experience, but quite broadly so: I have had over a hundred students per term since XXX. Though the top end undergrads and master's students are quite clever, nearly the equal of the best students stateside, the bulk are quite stultifyingly dull-minded. Quite a few even of the mediocrities work very hard: work ethic is not lacking in all but the most spoiled richies; and yet your ordinary Turkish undergraduate simply lacks the most elementary critical imagination. Teaching here is, in a way, heaven: the students frantically take notes, and try desperately to regurgitate back to you exactly what, they think, you taught them...

Here's the rub: Turks' very lack of intellectual sophistication is a large part of the reason I'm so fond of them. My students utterly lack the world-weary, premature sophistication / jadedness of American or European students. They love their country, in an entirely unironic way, lacking all shame or sense of needing to apologize for it. They're willing to accept anything I say about, say, the evils of Communism; but they will suddenly come to attention if I allude to ANYTHING relating to Ataturk, the war of independence, Turkey's borders, etc.

I think joining the EU would ruin this country, ultimately, by undermining the old fashioned virtues of the place.

As I wrote, Turkey is, by global standards, a pretty average country and, yet, a reasonably successful one, especially for a Muslim one in the Middle East. So, it's a decent role model for other average countries, yet subsuming it into the EU will slowly obliterate the virtues that made it a role model.

Steve Sailer's homepage and blog is iSteve.com

Bush's Latest Shia Pet: Hezbollah!

Bush's Latest Shia Pet: Hezbollah!

"U.S. Called Ready to See Hezbollah in Lebanon Role" By STEVEN R. WEISMAN, NYT

After years of campaigning against Hezbollah, the radical Shiite Muslim party in Lebanon, as a terrorist pariah, the Bush administration is grudgingly going along with efforts by France and the United Nations to steer the party into the Lebanese political mainstream, administration officials say.

The administration's shift was described by American, European and United Nations officials as a reluctant recognition that Hezbollah, besides having a militia and sponsoring attacks on Israelis, is an enormous political force in Lebanon that could block Western efforts to get Syria to withdraw its troops.

On Tuesday, Hezbollah showed its clout by sponsoring one of the biggest demonstrations of recent Lebanese history, bringing hundreds of thousands of largely Shiite supporters into central Beirut to support the party's alliance with Syria and, by extension, the presence in Lebanon of 14,000 Syrian troops.

Lebanon's political crisis deepened Wednesday when Parliament renominated the pro-Syrian prime minister nine days after he resigned under pressure from street demonstrations. If opposition leaders refuse to join his transitional government, tension over the rules for elections in May and the withdrawal of Syrian troops from the country will be high.

The United States and France sponsored a United Nations Security Council resolution last year calling for Syrian troops to leave Lebanon, and a special United Nations envoy, Terje Roed Larsen, is to press for the troop withdrawal. Officially, Mr. Larsen's mission is also to demand the disarmament of Hezbollah, but as a practical matter that objective has receded, various officials say.

"The main players are making Hezbollah a lower priority," said a diplomat who is closely tracking the negotiations. "There is a realization by France and the United States that if you tackle Hezbollah now, you array the Shiites against you. With elections coming in Lebanon, you don't want the entire Shiite community against you."

The new posture of the administration was described by its officials, who asked not to be identified because of longstanding American antipathy toward Hezbollah.

"Hezbollah has American blood on its hands," an administration official said, referring to such events as the truck bombing that killed more than 200 American marines in Beirut in 1983. "They are in the same category as Al Qaeda. The administration has an absolute aversion to admitting that Hezbollah has a role to play in Lebanon, but that is the path we're going down."

Lebanon has been by no means an autocracy since Syria ended the civil war in 1990, but pushing "Democracy!" in Lebanon will largely benefit Hezbollah, since the traditional Lebanese political system is severely gerrymandered against the Shiites (and in favor of the less anti-Israel groups, such as the Maronite Christians). Hezbollah only has one tenth of the seats in the current Lebanese assembly but they likely have a plurality among voters.


Steve Sailer's homepage and blog is iSteve.com

Why does our War on Islamism target anti-Islamists?

One of the recurrent ironies of the the Bush policy is how it constantly beats up the anti-Islamist elements in Islamic countries. Deposing the secularist Baath regime in Iraq in favor of the Grand Ayatollah is only the best known example. Lately, Syria has moved high on our target list, even though the ruling family of Syria, the Asads, are Alawites, a minority sect so heretical that most Muslims don't even consider them Muslims. Because of their precariousness, the Alawite-led Syrian government encourages, according to the U.S. government, religious toleration and pluralism, while discouraging (sometimes with artillery barrages) Muslim fanaticism.

Now, it is frequently argued that American support for religiously moderate Arab dictators like Mubaruk in Egypt encourages Islamism, but, of course, we've never liked the Syrian dictatorship, so, by this logic (such as it is), they should be the perfect solution for us. But, of course, there are fewer perfect solutions in the Middle East than even in the rest of the world.

The best argument for Bush's policy of encouraging Islamic extremism is the get-it-out-of-their-system theory, the idea that the only way the Arabs will learn that Muslim fanaticism is a bad idea is by letting the Muslim fanatics runs their countries for a few decades. Perhaps. Perhaps not. But it sure seems like an expensive way we are going about implementing such a tricky and fragile strategy.


Steve Sailer's homepage and blog is iSteve.com

What's Going on with the Republican Party?

An Antipodean reader who has one of the world's more ferociously conceptualizing minds emailed me this diagnosis of American politics that is very much along the lines I've been thinking as well about why conservatives win election but don't seem to accomplish anything terribly conservative with their victories. The prose style is a little sharp-cornered, but it rewards reading:

I agree that the Republican parties main problem is cognitive dissonance between the Red State’s conservative sociology and the Blue State’s constructivist* [i.e., liberal or progressive] ideology.*

So white male brains & balls allow extreme right wing REP politicos, eg Cheney and de Lay, to be the executives of US governmental power.

But white male heart & soul allow extreme left wing DEM policies -- eg de facto open borders, democracy promotion abroad -- to be the beneficiaries of US governmental power.

I think that in the post-Vietnam era there has been a division of labour between the two parties.

DEMs have been objectively better in political economy, hence the robustness of the US’s welfare state REPs have been objectively better in geo-politics, hence the robustness of the US’s warfare state.

The REPs have an edge in domestic political culture, since LBJ & EMK signed away the DEM control of the South in 1965, hence the robustness of the US’s lawfare state.

This last factor has swung White Family Males towards a covert form of Caucasian and Christian (CC) identity politics. This is why, as you have shown, the White Family Males voting bloc continue to win elections for the REPS since their fertile lineage literally keeps them in the race.

The problem for White Family Males is that their native individualism frowns on group identification and collective responsibility that goes with CC racialism and religionism. So they cannot declare themselves for their own identity political team. Instead they declare for an entity team (Proposition Nation, the military and the Constitution).

Moreover, Red State civic-minded souls must pay lip service to altruistic sounding doctrines, like multi-culti & pee-cee, which Blue State ideologues use to disarm them.

But Red State brutal-bodied males cannot help but reach for their guns when their own honor or power is threatened by Blue State criminals or terrorists.

This is not so much “white masochism” as an honest division of feeling between body, mind and soul. It sets the stage for the incidence of some pretty high-octane cognitive and cooperative dissonance. Of course a good political agent would set about dampening this, rather than amplifying it. The Bushie REPs are however interested in constantly ramping up the degree of ideological partisanship.

They are dominated by politicos who believe in the literal truth of parts of the ideology of their constructive [liberal] opponents and the literal truth of parts of the theology of their conservative forefathers. ie Blue State ideology and Red State theology.

They are also staffed by ultra-loyal & diligent party nerdy Machiavellian apparatchiks who are, as you say, more effective organizers.

Rove's problem is that he cannot make up his mind which side of that fence he wants to be on – he appears to be an apparatchik but he yearns to be a statesman.

So although the REP apparatchiks are pretty talented, as evinced by their excellent Get-Out-The-Vote effort, the REP executives are extreme utopians. This is a bad combination.

The only historical precedent I can think of for this utopian/apparatchik combination is the Communist Party during its Leninist manifestation, which showed a similar tendency towards national multiculturalism and global 4evolutionism.

The post-911 Bush admin tactic, fiendishly clever in its simplicity, was to marshal conservative nationalist White Family Male political support for liberal/progressive globalist policies. The White Family Males were therefore trapped by their ideological professions and sociological organisations into supporting (invade/invite the world) policies that are against their interests.

* I use conservative and constructive as polar opposites in cultural ideology. Apart from being etymologically more satisfying it draws attention to the inevitable dialectic of political history between the status-quo and the agitators. It seems better than regressive and progressive. The word liberal has long since lost all intellectual utility.


Steve Sailer's homepage and blog is iSteve.com